Exploring the Possibility of Linking and Incorporating Future Design in Backcasting and Scenario Planning

Abstract

There are two approaches to future planning: backcasting and scenario planning. While some studies have attempted to relate and combine these two approaches, a future design (FD) approach has recently been advocated and researched. Given this state of affairs, the paper provides an overview of the FD approach and discusses the potential benefits of linking and incorporating it into backcasting and scenario planning by summarizing the main features of such benefits for future planning for sustainability. A feature of an FD is that it explicitly orients people’s ways of thinking in the current generation to be generative for not only their own future but also generations to come, as well as in designing a plan within a coherent timeframe by demonstrating the characteristics of being prospective and retrospective from the viewpoint of a different generation. Another feature of FD lies in strategy making through some visioning process and in redefining the boundary between what is controllable and what is uncontrollable by considering the perspectives of future generations. We consider this article as a concept paper for the special issue of “Designing Sustainable Future Societies,” building on a literature review and author’s conceptual framework. Thus, our ideas and concepts suggest some potential benefits from incorporating FD into backcasting and scenario planning, further inducing people to be future-oriented and/or sustainable in terms of strategy making. We finally demonstrate some examples of FD practices and illustrative ideas of FD incorporation, remarking on possible avenues for future research.

Intergenerational sustainability is enhanced by taking the perspective of future generations

“…In this way, a specific factor that influences individual behaviors may be identified 80,81 . Qualitative interviews and deliberative approaches have already been used by some economists and psychologists [82][83][84][85][86] . Individual interviews or group deliberations are conducted to clarify how individuals and groups reach decisions 87 .…”

Legacy thinking for long term sustainability: Innovative approach applied in the development of a codesigned co-produced Social Prescribing intervention

“…One focus group schedule was titled the 'Today Group' and facilitated a deliberation on the present generation (shorttermism also known as short term thinking) [15]. The second focus group schedule was titled the 'Legacy Group' was aimed to activate long-term thinking among participants and the deliberation on future generations' perspective (forward and back thinking mechanism (FAB) [10].…”

“…Future Design aims to activate a human trait called "futurability", where people feel the happiness of having acted in a way that bene ts future generations [9] (p. 8). There are several different mechanisms within Future Design to try to encourage this trait [10], and this current study will draw upon the principles of the Future-Ahead-and-Back (FAB) mechanism. The FAB mechanism requires participants to imagine the perspectives and emotions of future generations.…”

Institutionalizing foresight in science, technology, and innovation in sub‐Saharan Africa

“…Commonly deployed foresight methods are SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis, backcasting (working backward from a preferred scenario/vision to identify what measures or actions are required to achieve the end goal (Timilsina et al., 2020)), benchmarking, environmental or horizon scanning, expert panels, trend extrapolation, Delphi (procedure of asking a panel of experts for their opinion on a relevant issue, summarizing and presenting their collective responses and repeating this process for a certain number of rounds (Shang, 2023)), brainstorming, scenario planning, gap analysis, causal layered analysis (CLA) (a technique that allows for deconstruction of complex social issues (Breen et al., 2016)), emergent trends, disruptors, and wild cards and weak signals. The choice and combination of these methods should be guided by various factors including a country's organizational capacities, purpose, or aim in the use of foresight.…”