Exploring the Long-Term Evolution of Trade Survival

Abstract

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. We find that short duration is a persistent characteristic of trade throughout the extended time period that we study: in general only 40 percent of trade flows survive the first year of service, and this share has not changed much since the 1960s. However, this observed constancy is the result of two underlying trends that work in opposite directions. On the one hand, positive trends in several of the observed explanatory variables -which in turn influence the hazard of trade flows dying in a negative direction -imply that the hazard tends to decrease over calendar time. On the other hand, there is also a positive trend in the hazard due to calendar year-specific unobserved factors. Holding all observed determinants constant, the probability of a trade flow dying in its first year increases from 34% at the beginning of the period to 90% at the end. Terms of use: Documents inJEL Classification: C41; F10; F14.

Economic Integration Agreements and Export Survival in Ghana

“…This makes intuitive sense, as plastic is more fragile and delicate than paper. Similar results on all of the above observations were reported by Hess andPersson (2011), andTurkcan andSaygili (2018).…”

“…Accordingly, Hess and Persson (2011) asserted that institutions have the ability to ease economic processes such as trade by reducing uncertainty and transaction costs. They further provided evidence that such functions can only be achieved by improving on the efficiency and quality of institutions.…”

“…This could be attributed to the inability of export relations to survive longer periods, especially in developing countries. According to Hess and Persson (2011), most developing countries thrive at forming markets and partners but fail woefully at maintaining such relations. Traditional export growth theories assume that trade relations will persist once they are formed.…”

“…However, recent empirical studies have shown that export relations are often short-lived (Asche et al, 2018;Besedes & Blyde, 2010;Besedes & Prusah, 2006;Hess & Person, 2011;Nitsch, 2009;Pu & Li, 2018;Stefan & Imre, 2018;Wang et al, 2019). This means that the survival of a bilateral trade relation from the first year of its formation until it assumes a zero value for a particular product could generally be low (Hess & Persson, 2011).…”