Exploring the implications of the harvest control rule for Pacific sardine, accounting for predator dynamics: A MICE model

Punt, André E.; MacCall, Alec D.; Essington, Timothy E.; Francis, Tessa B.; Hurtado-Ferro, Felipe; Johnson, Kelli F.; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Koehn, Laura E.; Levin, Phillip S.; Sydeman, William J.

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.06.004

Cited by 63 publications

(73 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Different rules minimized collapses for each forage fish type (Figure a), highlighting the need for diverse management options depending on life history. Recommendations for forage fish management can be broad in order to mitigate risk (Cury et al., ; Pikitch, ) or they are tailored to specific stocks, based on the biology of a specific system (Punt, MacCall, et al., ). Here, we show that the “best” rule for maximizing performance of forage fish stocks might be one tailored to the life history of the species, the trade‐offs involved in the fishery, and stock‐specific uncertainties.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Forage fish characteristically undergo high‐amplitude fluctuations in productivity, which occur in the absence of fishing (Chavez, Ryan, Lluch‐Cota, & Niquen, ; McClatchie, Hendy, Thompson, & Watson, ) but can be amplified by fishing when productivity drops rapidly and management fails to respond (Dickey‐Collas et al., ; Essington et al., ). Regardless of their cause, collapses in forage fish abundance affect the livelihoods of those involved in fishing and processing and can cause shifts in predator diet, abundance and reproductive success (e.g., Francis, Hare, Hollowed, & Wooster, ; Kaplan et al., ; Kitaysky, Wingfield, & Piatt, ; Punt, MacCall, et al., ). Rapid increases in abundance, on the other hand, are a boon for predators and provide opportunities for additional catches.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forage fish fisheries management requires a tailored approach to balance trade‐offs

2018

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Ecosystem‐based fishery management requires considering the effects of actions on social, natural and economic systems. These considerations are important for forage fish fisheries, because these species provide ecosystem services as a key prey in food webs and support valuable commercial fisheries. Forage fish stocks fluctuate naturally, and fishing may make these fluctuations more pronounced, yet harvest strategies intended to ameliorate these effects might adversely affect fisheries and communities. Here, we evaluate trade‐offs among a diverse suite of management objectives by simulating outcomes from several harvest strategies on forage fish species. We demonstrate that some trade‐offs (like those between catches and minimizing collapse length) were universal among forage species and could not be eliminated by the use of different control rules. We also demonstrate that trade‐offs vary among forage fish species, with strong trade‐offs between stable, high catches and high‐biomass periods (“bonanzas”) for menhaden‐ and anchovy‐like fish, and counterintuitive trade‐offs for sardine‐like fish between shorter collapses and longer bonanzas. We find that harvest strategies designed to maintain stability in catches will result in more severe collapses. Finally, we show that the ability of assessments to detect rapid changes in population status greatly affects control rule performance and the degree and type of trade‐offs, increasing the risk and severity of collapses and reducing catches. Together, these results demonstrate that while default harvest strategies are useful in data‐poor situations, management strategy evaluations that are tailored to specific forage fish may better balance trade‐offs.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forage fish fisheries management requires a tailored approach to balance trade‐offs

2018

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“…Number of krill of age a, in area A and latitude L, of age a at the start of year y Johnston,Murphy, & Clarke, 2012), this is difficult to quantify; therefore, we restrict our focus in this model to the main baleen whale predators. Furthermore, this model is a first-step base case scenario designed to link phytoplankton, krill and whales, which can be expanded to explore a range of alternative hypotheses, such as changes in trophic flows due to including other predator groups.We incorporate an intraspecific density-dependent term in the population dynamics of the whales, based on the form suggested inThomson, Butterworth, Boyd, and Croxall (2000) and modified fromPunt et al (2016) (Equation 3a). We assume the density dependence is more important in season 2 (winter) because of competition for preferred calving grounds.…”

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Ecosystem modelling to quantify the impact of historical whaling on Southern Hemisphere baleen whales

et al. 2017

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Many baleen whales were commercially harvested during the 20th century almost to extinction. Reliable assessments of how this mass depletion impacted whale populations, and projections of their recovery, are crucial but there are uncertainties regarding the status of Southern Hemisphere whale populations. We developed a SouthernHemisphere spatial "Model of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem Assessments" (MICE) for phytoplankton, krill (Euphausia superba) and five baleen whale species, to estimate whale population trajectories from 1890 to present. To forward project to 2100, we couple the predator-prey model to a global climate model. We used the most up to date catch records, fitted to survey data and accounted for key uncertainties. We predict Antarctic blue (Balaenoptera musculus intermedia), fin (Balaenoptera physalus) and southern right (Eubalaena australis) whales will be at less than half their pre-exploitation numbers (K) even given 100 years of future protection from whaling, because of slow growth rates. Some species have benefited greatly from cessation of harvesting, particularly humpbacks (Megaptera novaeangliae), currently at 32% of K, with full recovery predicted by 2050. We highlight spatial differences in the recovery of whale species between oceanic areas, with current estimates of Atlantic/Indian area blue (1,890, <1% of K) and fin (16,950, <4% of K) whales suggesting slower recovery from harvesting, whilst Pacific southern right numbers are <7% of K (2,680).Antarctic minke (Balaenoptera bonaerensis) population trajectories track future expected increases in primary productivity. Population estimates and plausible future predicted trajectories for Southern Hemisphere baleen whales are key requirements for management and conservation. K E Y W O R D SAntarctic, baleen whale, commercial whaling, ecosystem model, krill, multispecies model

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“…MICE incorporate best feature of existing single-species models and has the ability to apply standard statistical methods for parameter estimation and can include ecological interactions based on defined objectives (Plaganyi et al, 2014). However, studies performed using MICE also show the importance of including complex trophic interactions between species and the need for developing food web models or "whole of ecosystem models" to allow evaluation of impacts on a broader set of predators (Plaganyi et al, 2014;Punt et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of Future Black Sea Fish Stocks under Changing Environmental and Climatic Conditions

et al. 2017

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Here we present a case study toward producing quantitative scientific advice on the application of the EU Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) in the Black Sea. We provide estimates of fishing mortality rates at levels which will lead to rebuilding and maintaining stocks above biomass levels that could produce maximum sustainable yield (MSY) under the IPCC RCP4.5 future climate scenario together with the business as usual (BAU) river discharge scenario. In this study, we have implemented a coupled, basin-scale circulation-biogeochemical model and used its output to feed a food web model to test near-future changes that may be observed in the Black Sea ecosystem under the influence of contemporary fisheries exploitation conditions. In order to test model response to changes in climate and related drivers, the future climate scenario (2015-2020) simulation was compared to the present day (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014) simulation. Likewise, to test the sensitivity of the higher trophic level food web model to changes in fishing pressure, a future estimate of fishing pressure was projected based on its respective contemporary value and applied to each fish stock. Using these models, fishing mortality rates that could produce the maximum sustainable yield (F MSY ) in future years 2015-2020 and ensure the long-term recovery of the predatory fish stocks of the Black Sea are predicted. Future projections suggest that all fish stock will decrease in all the regions of the Black Sea except for sprat. Anchovy is expected to show the highest decrease in biomass. Analyses on F MSY estimates show that a significant reduction in fisheries exploitation is required for the sustainable management of the Black Sea ecosystems and the related services. This study, for the first time, presents future stock size, F MSY , and MSY estimates for the Black Sea for 11 fish species. F MSY values are generally lower than estimates of the scientific, technical, and economic committee for fisheries (STECF), mainly because of the explicit food web interactions that the modeling system allows to be considered.

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Exploring the implications of the harvest control rule for Pacific sardine, accounting for predator dynamics: A MICE model

Cited by 63 publications

References 32 publications

Forage fish fisheries management requires a tailored approach to balance trade‐offs

Forage fish fisheries management requires a tailored approach to balance trade‐offs

Ecosystem modelling to quantify the impact of historical whaling on Southern Hemisphere baleen whales

Evolution of Future Black Sea Fish Stocks under Changing Environmental and Climatic Conditions

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