Exploring the future impact of automation in Brazil

Abstract

PurposeBrazil is struggling as the unemployment rate is 12.4% and nearly 13m people are unemployed. The fourth Industrial Revolution is advancing, and the country needs to consider how it will impact the labor market. This work explores the impact of automation on the Brazilian workforce to supply decision-makers with information about the subject.Design/methodology/approachThe authors converted the probability of computerization from the seminal work of Frey and Osborne to each of the more than 2,500 occupations in Brazil. They then crossed the automation probability with socioeconomic information about workers and companies available in the Brazilian Ministry of Labor Database.FindingsIn total, 60% of employment in Brazil is expected to be highly impacted by automation in the coming decades, with eight out of the ten occupations with the biggest workforce being highly automatable. Automation probability decreases as workers' education level increases, with the most significant difference between workers with higher education and those without it. The results show other inequalities in the impact of automation: the higher the wage, the lower the automation probability of occupations; the bigger the company, the lower the automation index; and workers from 16 to 24 years old have considerably higher chances of being automated.Originality/valueThis work is the first to study, in the context of the fourth Industrial Revolution, the impact of automation in Brazil with a socioeconomic analysis.

Potenciais impactos da Indústria 4.0 sobre os trabalhadores

“…A possibilidade das pessoas com menor grau de escolaridade serem mais impactadas pelas novas tecnologias -em particular, a automação -foi levantada também por estudos focados em estimar probabilidades de substituição de trabalhadores (Frey & Osborne, 2017;Lima et al, 2021). Em particular, para o caso brasileiro, o índice de automação para os trabalhadores com ensino superior incompleto seria de 68%, enquanto para aquelas com o ensino superior completo esse índice cai para 37% (Lima et al, 2021).…”

“…No Brasil, a adoção de novas tecnologias no mercado de trabalho é uma tendência, conforme apontam Lima et al (2019), Lima et al (2021) e Albuquerque et al (2019), nas próximas décadas, mais da metade dos postos de trabalho do país têm alta probabilidade de serem automatizados. Portugal pode ser considerado outro país em que as transformações digitais tendem a rapidamente substituir grande parte da força de trabalho humana (Duarte, 2019).…”

Managing Knowledge About Future of Work: A Model for Higher Education Institutions

“…As the automation of tasks that hitherto required humans, including non-repetitive cognitive tasks such as those that constitute many white-collar jobs, a severe, broad, and fast-paced change in the skills that are demanded from workers is taking place. Several studies, following Frey & Osborne's (2017) seminal work, estimate that, depending on the country, 35-85% of existing jobs have a high risk of being automated in the next decades (Lima et al, 2021).…”

Job demands and resources when using technologies at work – development of a digital work typology

“…For example, production workers experience a shift from manual work to supervisory work, and logistics workers perceive process changes and interruptions due to digitally integrated customer decisions in delivery processes (Kloutsiniotis et al. , 2021; Lima et al. , 2021).…”

“…In the context of digital transformation, the use of digital technologies leads to reorganized valuecreation processes as well as changed requirements towards human work (Dalenogare et al, 2018;Gunasekaran and Ngai, 2014;Hammer and Karmakar, 2021). For example, production workers experience a shift from manual work to supervisory work, and logistics workers perceive process changes and interruptions due to digitally integrated customer decisions in delivery processes (Kloutsiniotis et al, 2021;Lima et al, 2021). Such developments have the potential to increase workers' mental stress and strain in several ways: Work organizations are modified and workers must adapt to new routines as well as constant changes in work processes.…”