Exploring the black box: Applying macro decomposition tools for scenario comparisons

Emission pathways and mitigation options for achieving consumption-based climate targets in Sweden

“…3 and 4. On the one hand, the energy efficiency assumption used-the historic trend at the global level 53 -may overestimate the improvement potential given that the energy efficiency of Swedish economic activities is already relatively high 54 . On the other hand, behavioral changes could enable higher rates of energy efficiency improvements through, e.g., pushing towards buying high-quality products with longer lifetimes or increasing the degree of servitization-where users pay for a service instead of buying equipment 55 .…”

“…The model assumes that population growth follows Swedish official projections 91 and economic growth per capita (i.e., increase in GNP/P) is assumed to be 1.4% per year (based on the average during 2022-2030 according to a Swedish official prognosis 109 ). The energy intensity of economic activity (FE/GNP) is assumed to follow historic global trends for 1995-2014 of 1.83% per year reduction, as estimated by Koomey et al 53 , in the scenarios presented in the main paper. Two extreme cases (presented in Supplementary Figs.…”

Consequences of adopting national consumption-based climate targets alongside the territorial commitments under the Paris Agreement

“…The model assumes that population growth follows Swedish o cial projections 60 and economic growth per capita (i.e., increase in GNP/P) is assumed to be 1.4% per year. The energy intensity of economic activity (FE/GNP) is assumed to follow historic global trends for 1995-2014 of 1.83% per year reduction, as estimated by Koomey et al 45 , in the scenarios presented in the main paper. Two extreme cases (presented in Extended Data Fig.…”

“…However, the rate of energy e ciency (i.e., the energy use per unit of economic activity) and carbon intensity improvements assumed in the top-down methodology are highly uncertain, see Extended Data Figures 3-4. On the one hand, the energy e ciency assumption used -the historic trend at the global level 45 -may overestimate the improvement potential given that the energy e ciency of Swedish economic activities is already relatively high 46 . On the other hand, behavioral changes could enable higher rates of energy e ciency improvements through, e.g., pushing towards buying high-quality products with longer lifetimes or increasing the degree of servitization -where users pay for a service instead of buying equipment 47 The emission impact of demand-side mitigation measures…”