Exploring the ability of current climate information to facilitate local climate services for the water sector

Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Grillakis, Manolis; Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Jacob, Daniela

doi:10.1186/s40322-015-0032-5

Cited by 21 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…As the HARMONIE model has shown to sufficiently simulate observed events (Attema et al, 2014;Koutroulis et al, 2015) and as it is the method that involves the highest level of physical sophistication, its outcome is used here as a benchmark for the evaluation of the P i -T d method and the linear-delta method. The comparison between the P i -T d method and the future simulation provides information on how the explicitly modeled interactions affect the results, compared to the statistical methods.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future extreme precipitation intensities based on a historic event

Manola

Hurk

Moel

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In a warmer climate, it is expected that precipitation intensities will increase, and form a considerable risk of high-impact precipitation extremes. This study applies three methods to transform a historic extreme precipitation event in the Netherlands to a similar event in a future warmer climate, thus compiling a "future weather" scenario. The first method uses an observation-based non-linear relation between the hourly-observed summer precipitation and the antecedent dew-point temperature (the P i -T d relation). The second method simulates the same event by using the convective-permitting numerical weather model (NWP) model HARMONIE, for both present-day and future warmer conditions. The third method is similar to the first method, but applies a simple linear delta transformation to the historic data by using indicators from The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)'14 climate scenarios. A comparison of the three methods shows comparable intensity changes, ranging from below the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling to a 3 times CC increase per degree of warming. In the NWP model, the position of the events is somewhat different; due to small wind and convection changes, the intensity changes somewhat differ with time, but the total spatial area covered by heavy precipitation does not change with the temperature increase. The P i -T d method is simple and time efficient compared to numerical models. The outcome can be used directly for hydrological and climatological studies and for impact analysis, such as flood-risk assessments.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future extreme precipitation intensities based on a historic event

Manola

Hurk

Moel

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…As the Harmonie model has shown to be able to sufficiently simulate observed events (Attema et al, 2014;Koutroulis et al, 2015) and as it is the method that involves the highest level of physical sophistication, its outcome is used here as a benchmark for the evaluation of the Pi-Td method and 10 the linear-delta method. The comparison between the Pi-Td method and the future simulation provides information on how the explicitly modelled interactions affect the results, compared to the statistical methods.…”

Section: Ens C) the Lower Path: Using Delta-change Factors Retrievedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future extreme precipitation intensities based on historic events

Manola¹,

Hurk²,

Moel³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract. In a warmer climate, it is expected that precipitation intensities will increase, and form a considerable risk of high impact of precipitation extremes. This study applies three methods to transform a historic extreme precipitation event in the Netherlands to a similar event in a future warmer climate, thus compiling a 'future weather' scenario. The first method uses 10 an observation-based non-linear relation between the hourly observed summer precipitation and the antecedent dew-point temperature (the Pi-Td relation). The second method simulates the same event by using the convective-permitting NWP model Harmonie, for both present day and future warm conditions. The third method is similar to the first method, but applies a simple linear delta transformation to the historic data by using indicators from The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) '14 climate scenarios. A comparison of the three methods shows comparable intensity 15 changes, ranging from below the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling to a 3 times CC increase per degree of warming. In the NWP model, the position of the events is somewhat different, due to small wind and convection changes, the intensity changes somewhat differ with time, but the total spatial area covered by heavy precipitation does not change with the temperature increase.The Pi-Td method is simple and time-efficient, compared to numerical models. The outcome can be used directly for 20 hydrological and climatological studies, and for impact analysis, such as flood-risk assessments.

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“…The concept of SWL has been used previously in a number of studies (Fung et al, 2011;Gemenne, 2011;Koutroulis et al, 2015;Papadimitriou et al, 2015) and provides the flexibility to use data from Earth system models (ESM) of variable equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) (Sherwood et al, 2014). Equilibrium climate sensitivity expresses the global mean equilibrium temperature response to a doubling CO 2 concentration of its preindustrial level in the atmosphere (Xin-Yu et al, 2013).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-Induced Shifts in Global Soil Temperature Regimes

et al. 2016

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Soil temperature is a key factor of plant growth and biological enzyme activities occurring in the soil, affected by the land cover, the evapotranspiration rate, the albedo, and the energy budget of the soil surface. In recent decades, efforts have been made to conserve soils against nonsustainable anthropogenic pressures. Changes in climate can impose additional threats on soil sustainability, as global scale soil temperature regime alterations are expected under global warming. Here, data from three well-established global climate models, spanning from 1981 to as far as 2120, are used to force the JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) model and produce simulations of soil temperature, calculating the water and energy budgets of the land surface. Modeled soil temperature data are used to estimate the climate-induced changes in the global soil temperature regimes at three different global warming levels. The results show significant shifts in the soil temperature regime for extended areas of the world, especially in the northern hemisphere. Pergelic and Cryic areas are reduced, whereas the Mesic and Thermic soils gain large areas in all three studied scenarios. Implications of the warming patterns might indicate the northward shift of various croplands in regions that until now their cultivation was not possible.

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Exploring the ability of current climate information to facilitate local climate services for the water sector

Cited by 21 publications

References 59 publications

Future extreme precipitation intensities based on a historic event

Future extreme precipitation intensities based on a historic event

Future extreme precipitation intensities based on historic events

Climate-Induced Shifts in Global Soil Temperature Regimes

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