Exploring Risk-Targeted Hazard Maps for Europe

Silva, Vítor; Crowley, Helen; Bazzurro, Paolo

doi:10.1193/112514eqs198m

Cited by 75 publications

(138 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…A significant variation of the factor q in areas of low seismicity is noticed, but in any case the values of the accelerations remain low. This is discussed also by Silva et al (2016), who considered only areas with acceleration values higher than 0.05 g.…”

Section: Risk-targeted Design Maps For Europementioning

confidence: 98%

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Comparison of methods to develop risk-targeted seismic design maps

Gkimprixis

Tubaldi

Douglas

2019

Bull Earthquake Eng

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The seismic design of structures according to current codes is generally carried out using a uniform-hazard spectrum for a fixed return period, and by employing a deterministic approach that disregards many uncertainties, such as the contribution of earthquake ground motions with return periods other than that assumed for the design. This results in uncontrolled values of the failure probability, which vary with the structure and the location. Risk targeting has recently emerged as a tool for overcoming these limitations, allowing achievement of consistent performance levels for structures with different properties through the definition of uniform-risk design maps. Different countries are implementing the concepts of risk targeting in different ways, and new methods have recently emerged. In the first part of this article, the most well-known approaches for risk targeting are reviewed, with particular focus on the one implemented in recent American design codes, the one based on the use of risk-targeted behaviour factors (RTBF), and an approach based on direct estimation of hazard curves for inelastic response of single-degree-of-freedom systems. The effect of the linearization of the hazard curve is investigated first. A validation of the RTBF approach is then provided, based on comparison with the results of uniform-risk design spectral accelerations for single-degree-of-freedom systems with elastic-perfectly plastic behaviour for two different sites. The effectiveness of the current risk-targeting framework applied in the United States is also investigated. In the last part of the paper, uniform-risk design maps for Europe are developed using the RTBF approach, showing how the seismic design levels may change when moving from a uniform-hazard to a uniform-risk concept.

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Section: Risk-targeted Design Maps For Europementioning

confidence: 98%

“…material design values, capacity design and minimum member sizes) are also responsible for the uncontrollable risk levels that are generally different from the hazard levels (e.g. Collins et al 1996;Silva et al 2016;Iervolino et al 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of methods to develop risk-targeted seismic design maps

Gkimprixis

Tubaldi

Douglas

2019

Bull Earthquake Eng

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“…In addition, the average annual collapse risk was estimated as 2.5•10 -6 (with a maximum of 1.6•10 -4 ), while the regulation imposes 2•10 -4 . Also, the value of 0.25% in a design life of 50 years (5•10 -5 annually), as proposed in Silva et al (2016), was in some cases exceeded. Judd and Charney (2014) state that "the assumed ASCE 7-10 fragility curve is conservative" and that "the conditional probability of collapse may exceed 10%".…”

Section: The State Of the Artmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…The procedure of Luco et al (2007), although often using different input parameters (see below), has been applied to France (Douglas et al, 2013), Romania (Vacareanu et al, 2017), Indonesia (SNI, 2012), Canada (Allen et al, 2015) and at a European scale (Silva et al, 2016), as well as forming the basis of the current US seismic design code (ASCE, 2010). Despite its numerous attractions (see above) and the fact that it is a relatively simple procedure to implement, there are a number of outstanding issues.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Targeting in Seismic Design Codes: The State of the Art, Outstanding Issues and Possible Paths Forward

Douglas

Gkimprixis

2018

Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

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Over the past decade there have been various studies on the development of seismic design maps using the principle of "risk-targeting". The basis of these studies is the calculation of the seismic risk by convolution of a seismic hazard curve for a given location (derived using probabilistic seismic hazard analysis) with a fragility curve for a code-designed structure (ideally derived from structural modelling). The ground-motion level that the structure is designed for is chosen so that the structure has a pre-defined probability of achieving a certain performance level (e.g. non-collapse). At present seismic design maps developed using this approach are only widely applied in practice in the US but studies have also been conducted on a national basis for France, Romania, Canada and Indonesia, as well as for the whole of Europe using the European Seismic Hazard Model. This short article presents a review of the state of the art of this technique, highlighting efforts to constrain better some of the input parameters. In addition, we discuss the difficulties of applying this method in practice as well as possible paths forward, including an empirical method to estimate an upper bound for the acceptable collapse and yield risk.

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“…The 5 th , 50 th and 95 th percentiles of the computed probability are considered for two tolerable annual rates λtol of damage state probabilities (Table 3), based on the performance levels selected for seismic risk analysis. Silva et al [55] propose 5•10 -5 and 10 -4 as tolerable annual rates of collapse leading to loss of human life for low and moderate earthquake-prone countries, such as Greece . These values are adopted herein (λtol.1 and λtol.2) for low and moderate seismicity regions, respectively, as "human life safety" performance levels.…”

Section: Time-variant Damage-state Probability and Traffic-light Concmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Time-Variable Earthquake Risk for Reinforced Concrete Buildings During Aftershock Sequences Based on Operational Earthquake Forecasting and Resonance Period Elongation

Trevlopoulos¹,

Guéguen²,

Helmstetter³

et al. 2019

Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Computational Methods in Structural Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering (COM

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The probability of a reinforced concrete building to sustain cumulative damage during afterschock sequences is a key issue for crisis management. Assessments of time-variant probabilities of damage states are made herein for reinforced concrete building models the city of Thessaloniki, Greece, in the case of a mainshock scenario. The elongation of the first eigenperiod of the building is used as the engineering demand parameter in the computation of the fragility curves for the building models. Period elongation is selected, as it is readily available in the case of buildings with permanent monitoring systems, which are part of a critical infrastructure, and it may be used complementary to post-earthquake building inspection in order to assess earthquake damage. The increase of the vulnerability of the buildings with time due to potential earthquake damage accumulation is modeled with a probabilistic approach, which is based on the Markov chain. During the aftershock sequences the probability to exceed period elongation thresholds accumulates. Additional risk due to aftershocks as a function of time is estimated and the developed framework is based on the traffic-light concept (red-orange-green) for building-tagging with respect to seismic risk to support earthquake risk management in the course of aftershock sequences.

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Exploring Risk-Targeted Hazard Maps for Europe

Cited by 75 publications

References 27 publications

Comparison of methods to develop risk-targeted seismic design maps

Comparison of methods to develop risk-targeted seismic design maps

Risk Targeting in Seismic Design Codes: The State of the Art, Outstanding Issues and Possible Paths Forward

Forecasting Time-Variable Earthquake Risk for Reinforced Concrete Buildings During Aftershock Sequences Based on Operational Earthquake Forecasting and Resonance Period Elongation

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