Exploring Malaysia’s Transformation to Net Oil Importer and Oil Import Dependence

Abstract

Within ASEAN, Malaysia is a major oil-exporting country; however, it is expected to become a net oil-importing country in the near future. This issue brings concerns over Malaysia's energy security, particularly on the aspect of oil import dependency. This is because its transportation and industrial sectors are still heavily dependent on oil products. By simulating dynamic interplays between developments in Malaysia's oil sector and its economy sectors, this study explores the possible years of the transformation and the extent to which it will be dependent on oil import. Four scenarios related to enhanced oil recovery, exploration and production investment, subsidy elimination and technology advances are considered for the simulation. In isolation, the subsidy elimination scenario provides the best result. However, if all scenarios are considered simultaneously, an undesired effect emerges. The earliest that Malaysia is expected to become a net oil-importing country is 2012 and the latest is 2021. Malaysia's dependence on oil imports is expected to continue increasing. In all scenarios, the shares of oil import in the total supply rise to above 90% in 2030, with the highest share at 97%.

Effects of oil price shocks on the stock market performance: Do nature of shocks and economies matter?

“…For instance, in Malaysia, demand for domestic oil grows at a rate of 4% annually even though production of oil and gas in the country is stable at 2.7 % annually. This indicates that it is possible for the country to become an oil-importing economy in the future (Prambudia & Nakano, 2012). The long-term stability of finances in the major oil-exporting governments can be ensured by carrying out adjustments in their fiscal budgets.…”

Sustainable electricity generation from oil palm biomass wastes in Malaysia: An industry survey

“…Conversely, the long standing fuel subsidy system indirectly impinges on the growth of renewable technologies including the one from the oil palm biomass resources. Being a net oil exporter with an average of 10% oil export value in GDP between 2006 and 2010, Malaysia is ranked third in terms of oil reserves in the Asia-Pacific region behind China and India and emerges as a major oil-producing economy within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries [41]. The proven oil reserves in 2008 stands at 5.46 billion bbl but it is projected to be exhausted at the latest by the year 2021 [41].…”

“…Being a net oil exporter with an average of 10% oil export value in GDP between 2006 and 2010, Malaysia is ranked third in terms of oil reserves in the Asia-Pacific region behind China and India and emerges as a major oil-producing economy within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries [41]. The proven oil reserves in 2008 stands at 5.46 billion bbl but it is projected to be exhausted at the latest by the year 2021 [41]. By default, a subsidy cut can be achieved if more in-house refineries are built to avoid the country from exporting crude oil to outside facilities and buying it back at expensive prices.…”

Integrated Simulation Model for Energy Security Evaluation

“…The system dynamics (SD) modeling tool is widely established for use in policy analysis [16]. Various SD applications to energy issues can be found in the literature: for example [17][18][19][20][21]. Two main features of SD are important to this study.…”