Exploring larval phenology as predictor for range expansion in an invasive species

Abstract

Predicting range expansion of invasive species is one of the key challenges in ecology. We modelled the phenological window for successful larval release and development (WLR) in order to predict poleward expansion of the invasive crab Hemigrapsus sanguineus along the Atlantic coast of North America and north Europe. WLR quantifies the number of opportunities (in days) when larval release leads to a successful completion of the larval phase; WLR depends on the effects of temperature on the duration of larval development and survival. Successful larval development is a necessary requirement for the establishment of self-persistent local populations. WLR was computed from a mechanistic model, based on in situ temperature time series and a laboratory-calibrated curve predicting duration of larval development from temperature. As a validation step, we checked that model predictions of the time of larval settlement matched observations from the field for our local population (Helgoland, North Sea). We then applied our model to the North American shores because larvae from our European population showed, in the laboratory, similar responses to temperature to those of a North American population. WLR correctly predicted the northern distribution limit in North American shores, where the poleward expansion of H. sanguineus appear to have stalled (as of 2015). For north Europe, where H. sanguineus is a recent invader, WLR predicted ample room for poleward expansion towards NE England and S Norway. We also explored the importance of year-to-year variation in temperature for WLR and potential expansion: variations in WLR highlighted the role of heat waves as likely promoters of recruitment subsidising sink populations located at the distribution limits. Overall, phenological windows may be used as a part of a warning system enabling more targeted programs for monitoring.

Physiological basis of interactive responses to temperature and salinity in coastal marine invertebrate: Implications for responses to warming

“…We opted for field collections because the large number of larvae needed for the experiments (80 megalopae =4 temperatures × 2 acclimation salinities × 1 test salinity × 10 megalopae) was difficult to obtain from cultures. Megalopae were taken from floating and benthic collectors deployed and collected daily, using standard techniques (Giménez et al, 2020).…”

“…We know that crustacean larvae respond to temperature and salinity as stimuli (Epifanio & Cohen, 2016); however, swimming speed can be modified through physiological effects of both factors (Landeira et al, 2020;Sorochan & Metaxas, 2017;Yu et al, 2010). Overall, physiological information provided by the model may be integrated for instance in metapopulation models (Fordham et al, 2013;Giménez et al, 2020) to consider processes occurring at the individual and population level.…”

Methods to study organogenesis in decapod crustacean larvae. I. larval rearing, preparation, and fixation

“…Most organisms have a range of temperatures where they are able to develop (e.g. [42,43,83,84,93]). Some lar-vae are lecithotrophic (i.e.…”

“…Armases angustipes [206] Armases miersii [91] Armases roberti [66] Armases ricordi [207] Cancer pagurus [83,85] Carcinus maenas [44,85] Cardisoma armatum [208] Chiromantes eulimene [209] Chiromantes ortmanni [210] Cyrtograpsus affinis [211] Eriocheir sinensis [93,212] Geograpsus lividus [213] Hemigrapsus sanguineus [43] Brachyuran crabs Hexapanopeus schmitti [214] Hyas araneus [65] Hyas coarctatus [215] Inachus dorsettensis [216] Libinia emarginata [217] Libinia ferreirae [218] Liocarcinus holsatus [219,220] Macropodia rostrata [202] Maja brachydactyla [221] Maja squinado [202] Menippe mercenaria [217] Metasesarma rubripes [222] Metopaulias depressus [89] Necora puber [202] Neohelice granulata [223] Table 2 (continued)…”

“…Furthermore, we now know that larvae represent the life history phase that is highly sensitive to fluctuations of environmental parameters (e.g. [42][43][44][45]; reviews [21,46]). Also, larval development in crustaceans encompasses risks due to higher vulnerability through predation or overdrift into unsuitable habitats for settlement ( [37,47]).…”