Exploring Institutional Transformations to Address High-End Climate Change in Iberia

Abstract

Abstract:Either meeting the UNFCCC Paris agreement to limit global average warming below the 2-1.5 • C threshold, or going beyond it entails huge challenges in terms of institutional innovation and transformation. This research describes a participatory integrated assessment process aimed at exploring the options, opportunities, necessary capacities and implications for institutional co-operation and innovation in the Iberian Peninsula under High-End Climate Change (HECC). Using in-depth interviews and a novel participatory research approach, different scenario narratives and pathways about the future of Iberia have been identified using Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Special attention is given to the knowledge and policy options needed to implement cross-border organizational changes and co-operation mechanisms that would support the Integrated Climate Governance of the Tagus and Guadiana river basins. We show that a wealth of institutional innovation pathways and specific options and solutions exist not only to reduce GHG emissions (mitigation) and the negative impacts of climate change (adaptation), but, above all, to generate new forms of social-ecological system interactions aligned with sustainability (transformation). In particular, and depending on which scenario contexts unfold in the future in Iberia, different kinds of institutional and governance capacities and clusters of solutions may be needed in order to achieve transformation.

Urban transformative capacity: From concept to practice

“…Fourth, transformations may also turn out to move further away from sustainable pathways, i.e., the conception and development of urban TC should always be explicit about its normative orientations (cf. O'Brien 2012; Tàbara et al 2018). Most propositions about TC effectively result from concerns for sustainability and thus already incorporate a number of provisions supporting its core values and principles (e.g., regarding inclusion and justice, knowledge and value diversity, holistic thinking, long-term foresight).…”

Towards a Moral Compass to Guide Sustainability Transformations in a High-End Climate Change World

“…In order to formulate the various HECC scenarios in an integrated way, the IMPRESSIONS project followed an iterative process of downscaling a number of global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) [74] to case studies in different regions-the EU, Iberia, Scotland, Hungary, and Central Asia [15,73,75]. In each case study, four SSPs were created in the form of narratives to set the general socio-economic conditions in which different climatic challenges and the respective societal responses to them could unfold (for details on the IMPRESSIONS project's overall approach and its case studies see the project's Information Hub, available at: http://highendsolutions.eu/).…”

“…Subsequently, the article applies this tool to provide a preliminary exploration of different forms of moral guidance for governance arrangements in the HECC scenarios defined by the IMPRESSIONS project through a Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA). The methodology developed in that project and its application for various regions have been already explained in detail elsewhere [2,15], therefore this article has deliberately omitted its treatment and focused on the analysis of moral aspects not addressed so far in that research. Finally, the article, based on the potential of the moral compass, draws some synthetic considerations on sustainability, stressing that a world entering HECC scenarios will only be sustainable if it is guided by a morally strong open constitution and reflection.…”

Power interplay between actors in climate change adaptation policy-making in South Asia

“…CCA can be characterised as the process of adjustments in human and natural systems to avoid observed and projected impacts of climate change and can be realized at different scales (IPCC, 2014). Recent discussions emphasise the importance of planning, long-term systemic transformations in the most vulnerable regions in the world, including South Asia (Tàbara et al, 2018;IPCC, 2014;Pelling, 2010). National governments in the region are continuously deliberating about preparing and implementing dedicated CCA policies to prepare for long-term impacts .…”

“…In some natural systems, human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects" (IPCC, 2014, p. 5). Adaptation can be realised from the local to the global level and be focused on short-term actions or on long-term system transformations (Tàbara et al, 2018;IPCC, 2014;Pelling, 2010). With the impacts of climate change already being felt in South…”