Exploring Hypertension Incidence and Predictors in a Prospective Cohort Study of Kharameh in Southern Iran

Abstract

Background: Hypertension (HTN) is a significant public health concern globally. The study aims to estimate the incidence of HTN among adults aged 40 and above in southern Iran and identify the risk factors associated with it. Methods: The participants in the present prospective cohort study consisted of 7710 people aged 40–70 years. HTN is defined according to European guidelines for HTN management. Firth Logistic regression was used to model and predict the factors related to HTN. Additionally, the age standardized incidence rate (ASPR) of HTN was determined using the standard Asian population. Results: The study found that the incidence rate of HTN during the four-year follow-up was 21.54 per 1000 person-years, with higher incidence in females than males. Risk factors for developing HTN included being old, female, obesity, and using opium. Clinical risk factors included pre-HTN, family history of HTN, rheumatoid disease, kidney stones, recurrent headaches, history of head injury with anesthesia, and high triglyceride levels. Conclusion: The incidence of HTN was greater in women than in men. Furthermore, pre- HTN, advanced age, obesity, opioid use, and family history of HTN were the most significant risk factors for developing HTN. Therefore, it is advisable to develop strategies to lessen modifiable risk factors.