Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta—the Netherlands as an example

Katsman, Caroline A.; Sterl, Andreas; Beersma, J.; Brink, H. W. van den; Church, John A.; Hazeleger, Wilco; Kopp, Robert; Kroon, Dirk; Kwadijk, Jaap; Lammersen, Rita; Lowe, Jason; Oppenheimer, Michael; Plag, Hans‐Peter; Ridley, Jeff; Storch, Hans von; Vaughan, David G.; Vellinga, P.; Vermeersen, L. L. A.; Wal, R. S. W. van de; Weisse, Ralf

doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0037-5

Cited by 176 publications

(165 citation statements)

References 92 publications

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“…Subsequent advances (following Katsman et al [125], Slangen et al [126], and Church et al [127]) enabled this to be done in the AR5, which therefore presented projections of RSL change including all the above-mentioned effects except tectonics, which were also excluded. A number of regional projections and projections at coastal tide gauge sites, building on the AR4 and AR5 assessments and using the AR5 approach, have also been completed [120,[128][129][130][131][132][133][134][135].…”

Section: Regional Projections and Emergence Time Of The Forced Signalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Clark

Church

Gregory

et al. 2015

Curr Clim Change Rep

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Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5's assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003-2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993-2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likel...

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Section: Regional Projections and Emergence Time Of The Forced Signalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Clark

Church

Gregory

et al. 2015

Curr Clim Change Rep

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“…In relation to southern coastal regions of the North Sea, the natural and societal systems must also deal with the consequences and effects of climate change (Nicholls et al, 2007). For the coast of the Wadden Sea, Katsman et al (2011) estimate a regional sea level rise of 0.40-1.05 m by 2100. Additionally, the North Sea coastal areas are also exposed to significant and increasing storm events (Beniston et al, 2007;Grabemann and Weisse, 2008;Nicholls et al, 2007;Woth et al, 2005) and shifts in precipitation's scale and time (Beniston et al, 2007;Jacob et al, 2008;Spekat et al, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linking the ecosystem services approach to social preferences and needs in integrated coastal land use management – A planning approach

2014

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Coastal zones with their natural and societal sub-systems are exposed to rapid changes and pressures on resources. Scarcity of space and impacts of climate change are prominent drivers of land use and adaptation management today. Necessary modifications to present land use management strategies and schemes influence both the structures of coastal communities and the ecosystems involved. Approaches to identify the impacts and account for (i) the linkages between social preferences and needs and (ii) ecosystem services in coastal zones have been largely absent. The presented method focuses on improving the inclusion of ecosystem services in planning processes and clarifies the linkages with social impacts. In this study, fourteen stakeholders in decision-making on land use planning in the region of Krummhörn (northwestern Germany, southern North Sea coastal region) conducted a regional participative and informal process for local planning capable to adapt to climate driven changes. It is argued that scientific and practical implications of this integrated assessment focus on multi-functional options and contribute to more sustainable practices in future land use planning. The method operationalizes the ecosystem service approach and social impact analysis and demonstrates that social demands and provision of ecosystem services are inherently connected.

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“…We analyze the full bandwidth of projected SLR values in the North Sea basin resulting in SLR estimates of 0.2 to 2.5 m (Table 1). These low and high SLR estimates are based on KNMI'14 scenarios (De Vries et al 2014) and the extreme climate change scenarios on Katsman et al (2011). This range also covers the upper-limit SLR projections that includes the uncertainty in the driving processes such as ice sheet dynamics (Grinsted et al 2015).…”

Section: Hydrodynamical Boundary Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sea level is projected to rise 0.15 to 0.8 m towards the end of this century (De Vries et al 2014). From 2100 onwards, sea level will continue to rise, with Katsman et al (2011) projecting changes up to 3.5 m. SLR will increase the overall water level and therefore, also affect dune erosion by allowing waves to attack the dune at a higher level.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity analysis of climate change impacts on dune erosion: case study for the Dutch Holland coast

Winter

Ruessink

2017

Climatic Change

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Climate change could have large implications for the management of dunefringed coasts. Sea level rise and changes in storm wave and surge characteristics could lead to enhanced dune erosion and hence a decrease in safety levels. Here, we use the processbased model XBeach to quantify the impact of sea level rise and changing hydrodynamic boundary conditions on the magnitude of future dune erosion at two locations along the Dutch coast. We find a linear relation between sea level rise and dune erosion volume, the exact linear relation being dependent on the local hydrodynamical boundary conditions. The process driving higher erosion appears to be sea level rise, allowing waves to attack the dune at a higher level. Additional simulations illustrate that a change in the offshore wave angle, potentially produced by changes in storm tracks, could influence the erosion volume with the same order of magnitude as sea level rise. Finally, simulations with different mitigation options (i.e., sand nourishments) illustrate the strong effect of the location of the added sand to the reduction in the dune erosion volume.

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Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta—the Netherlands as an example

Cited by 176 publications

References 92 publications

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Linking the ecosystem services approach to social preferences and needs in integrated coastal land use management – A planning approach

Sensitivity analysis of climate change impacts on dune erosion: case study for the Dutch Holland coast

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