Exploring Futures of the Hindu Kush Himalaya: Scenarios and Pathways

Roy, Joyashree; Moors, E.J.; Murthy, M. Krishna; Prabhakar, Sivapuram Venkata Rama Krishna; Khattak, Bahadar Nawab; Shi, Peili; Huggel, Christian; Chitale, Vishwas

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-92288-1_4

Cited by 13 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…The future decline in glacier meltwater supply in this region may seem relatively minor on an annual basis due to precipitation excess in normal years 12 but is crucial seasonally, affecting the growth of cash crops in the waterscarce pre-monsoon 51 . Given the likelihood of considerable cryospheric and environmental change, the societal pathway of adaptation to change in these basins will directly control downstream communities' resilience to water resource change 6,52 .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Health and sustainability of glaciers in High Mountain Asia

et al. 2021

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Glaciers in High Mountain Asia generate meltwater that supports the water needs of 250 million people, but current knowledge of annual accumulation and ablation is limited to sparse field measurements biased in location and glacier size. Here, we present altitudinally-resolved specific mass balances (surface, internal, and basal combined) for 5527 glaciers in High Mountain Asia for 2000–2016, derived by correcting observed glacier thinning patterns for mass redistribution due to ice flow. We find that 41% of glaciers accumulated mass over less than 20% of their area, and only 60% ± 10% of regional annual ablation was compensated by accumulation. Even without 21st century warming, 21% ± 1% of ice volume will be lost by 2100 due to current climatic-geometric imbalance, representing a reduction in glacier ablation into rivers of 28% ± 1%. The ablation of glaciers in the Himalayas and Tien Shan was mostly unsustainable and ice volume in these regions will reduce by at least 30% by 2100. The most important and vulnerable glacier-fed river basins (Amu Darya, Indus, Syr Darya, Tarim Interior) were supplied with >50% sustainable glacier ablation but will see long-term reductions in ice mass and glacier meltwater supply regardless of the Karakoram Anomaly.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Health and sustainability of glaciers in High Mountain Asia

et al. 2021

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“…There is also a need to reduce the logistical and financial burden of studying across international political borders. In particular, regional organizations have a key role to play in enhancing transboundary cooperation, as evidenced by the PSP work in the Hindu Kush Himalaya by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (Roy et al 2019).…”

Section: Geographic Applicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Improvements in telecommunication, infrastructure, information communication technology, telebanking, and access to remote sensing technology could lead to more off-farm livelihood diversification and specialized market chains , Daconto and Sherpa 2010. However, the extent to which MtSES will benefit from technological innovation is contingent on a wide spectrum of legal, governance, economic, institutional, and environmental factors (Capitani et al 2016, Roy et al 2019.…”

Section: Thematic Coveragementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Uncertainty in PSP may arise from a variety of sources, including insufficient or erroneous data used to construct and test models, e.g., soil moisture and streamflow at high elevations (Wu et al 2012, Capitani et al 2016), problems in system understanding, e.g., the functional role of predator species in alpine ecosystems , or not having a full range of perspectives in the participatory workshops. This lack of diverse perspectives can then lead to insufficient representation of underlying processes, e.g., inadequate understanding of strategic national priorities for large-scale electrification (Roy et al 2019) or low predictability of the system, e.g., random behavior in energy demand or nonlinear shifts from stable states due to eutrophication (Rockström et al 2009).…”

Section: What Are Key Gaps Of Psp In Mtses and What Can Be Learned Fmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A systematic review of participatory scenario planning to envision mountain social-ecological systems futures

Thorn¹,

Klein²,

Steger³

et al. 2020

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Mountain social-ecological systems (MtSES) provide crucial ecosystem services to over half of humanity. However, populations living in these highly varied regions are now confronted by global change. It is critical that they are able to anticipate change to strategically manage resources and avoid potential conflict. Yet, planning for sustainable, equitable transitions for the future is a daunting task, considering the range of uncertainties and the unique character of MtSES. Participatory scenario planning (PSP) can help MtSES communities by critically reflecting on a wider array of innovative pathways for adaptive transformation. Although the design of effective approaches has been widely discussed, how PSP has been employed in MtSES has yet to be examined. Here, we present the first systematic global review of single-and multiscalar, multisectoral PSP undertaken in MtSES, in which we characterize the process, identify strengths and gaps, and suggest effective ways to apply PSP in MtSES. We used a nine-step process to help guide the analysis of 42 studies from 1989 screened articles. Our results indicate a steady increase in relevant studies since 2006, with 43% published between 2015 and 2017. These studies encompass 39 countries, with over 50% in Europe. PSP in MtSES is used predominantly to build cooperation, social learning, collaboration, and decision support, yet meeting these objectives is hindered by insufficient engagement with intended end users. MtSES PSP has focused largely on envisioning themes of governance, economy, land use change, and biodiversity, but has overlooked themes such as gender equality, public health, and sanitation. There are many avenues to expand and improve PSP in MtSES: to other regions, sectors, across a greater diversity of stakeholders, and with a specific focus on MtSES paradoxes. Communicating uncertainty, monitoring and evaluating impacts, and engendering more comparative approaches can further increase the utility of PSP for addressing MtSES challenges, with lessons for other complex social-ecological systems.

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“…Environmentally, socially, and economically, there is no single likely future for the HKH. Between now and 2030, the HKH may run downhill, the region may continue doing business as usual and muddle through, or it may advance toward prosperity, as outlined in the scenarios chapter of the HKH Assessment report (Roy et al 2019).…”

Section: Vision For a Prosperous Hkhmentioning

confidence: 99%