Exploring future scenarios for the global supply chain of tuna

Mullon, Christian; Guillotreau, Patrice; Galbraith, Eric D.; Fortilus, Jeanne; Chaboud, Christian; Bopp, Laurent; Aumont, Olivier; Kaplan, David M.

doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2016.08.004

Cited by 21 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…Weng et al (2015), señalan que para mantener la seguridad alimentaria en los países y territorios insulares del Pacífico, ante el incremento previsto de la población, será necesario un aumento de las capturas de túnidos tropicales. En esta línea, se considera a los túnidos un recurso esencial para la seguridad alimentaria mundial frente al incremento de la población mundial (HLPE 2014, Mullon et al 2017.…”

Section: El Gran Reto De Este Siglo Para La Gestión Pesqueraunclassified

“…El planeta está experimentando un período de rápido calentamiento global (Oreskes 2004). Asumiendo que son inevitables los efectos del calentamiento global a corto y medio plazo, y previendo que se incrementará la demanda del consumo de carne de especies marinas hacia el 2030, entre ellas los túnidos, debido al incremento de la población mundial, lo cual sumado al efecto, probablemente negativo que tendrá el cambio climático a nivel global, en las próximas décadas, podría desencadenar un colapso de los stocks comerciales de túnidos a largo plazo, lo cual ya ha sido señalado por algunos autores (Mullon et al 2017). A esto hay que añadir que el calentamiento global podría reducir significativamente la concentración de ácidos grasos en túnidos, los cuales son beneficiosos para el consumidor (Pethybridge et al 2015).…”

Section: El Gran Reto De Este Siglo Para La Gestión Pesqueraunclassified

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Túnidos tropicales: calentamiento global y seguridad alimentaria, una visión global

Báez

Pascual-Alayón

Ramos

et al. 2019

Rev. biol. mar. oceanogr.

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The term 'tropical tuna' refers to skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis), bigeye (Thunnus obesus) and yellowfin tunas (Thunnus albacares), which have a wide pantropical distribution. Tropical tunas inhabit waters with a sea surface temperature with an optimal value around 20°C. Currently, two of these species are among the 7 species with higher landings worldwide. In addition, it is expected that future tropical tuna stocks play a key role safeguarding food security. The aim of this paper was to review the studies about the effect of both climatic oscillations and global warming on tropical tuna populations. Moreover, it warns about the main challenges of fisheries biology in relation to the management of stocks of tropical tunas, an important fishery resource, in the context of climate change. For this, a review of studies that have addressed to date the effect of both climate oscillations and global warming on populations of tropical tunas was performed.

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Section: El Gran Reto De Este Siglo Para La Gestión Pesqueraunclassified

Túnidos tropicales: calentamiento global y seguridad alimentaria, una visión global

Báez

Pascual-Alayón

Ramos

et al. 2019

Rev. biol. mar. oceanogr.

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“…These species are expected to be affected by anthropogenic climate change (Muhling et al, ), shifting their distribution, migration times, physiological rates and abundance with consequences for catchability to fisheries (Báez, Pascual‐Alayón, Ramos, & Abascal, ; Brill & Hobday, ). Due to the migratory nature of these species, some tuna fisheries operate over large spatial scales and multiple jurisdictions, utilizing fishing agreements to access EEZs, and with significant fishing activity in the high seas (Mullon et al, ). The importance of these fisheries for economies and livelihoods, together with the transboundary nature of the stocks and management, and the threat of climate change to tropical tuna species make it crucial to understand the challenges regarding future sustainability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Considerable effort has been expended on projecting tropical tuna fisheries activity under climate change scenarios (Asch, Cheung, & Reygondeau, ; Dell, Wilcox, Matear, Chamberlain, & Hobday, ; Lehodey et al, ; Michael, Wilcox, Tuck, Hobday, & Strutton, ; Yen, Su, Teemari, Lee, & Lu, ), but there is still little evidence showing impacts of climate change on the activity of fleets targeting tropical tunas (Monllor‐Hurtado, Pennino, & Sanchez‐Lizaso, ) or the consequences for dependent societies, economies and fisheries governance (Dueri et al, ; McIlgorm et al, ; Mullon et al, ). Regarding institutions, mainly two Regional Fisheries Management Organizations (RFMOs) take into account climate change considerations (i.e.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Southward re‐distribution of tropical tuna fisheries activity can be explained by technological and management change

et al. 2020

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There is broad evidence of climate change causing shifts in fish distribution worldwide, but less is known about the response of fisheries to these changes. Responses to climate‐driven shifts in a fishery may be constrained by existing management or institutional arrangements and technological settings. In order to understand how fisheries are responding to ocean warming, we investigate purse seine fleets targeting tropical tunas in the east Atlantic Ocean using effort and sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) data from 1991 to 2017. An analysis of the spatial change in effort using a centre of gravity approach and empirical orthogonal functions is used to assess the spatiotemporal changes in effort anomalies and investigate links to SSTA. Both analyses indicate that effort shifts southward from the equator, while no clear pattern is seen northward from the equator. Random forest models show that while technology and institutional settings better explain total effort, SSTA is playing a role when explaining the spatiotemporal changes of effort, together with management and international agreements. These results show the potential of management to minimize the impacts of climate change on fisheries activity. Our results provide guidance for improved understanding about how climate, management and governance interact in tropical tuna fisheries, with methods that are replicable and transferable. Future actions should take into account all these elements in order to plan successful adaptation.

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“…The human part of the marine system may include direct participants in marine activities (e.g., fishers, tourists), downstream participants (e.g., fish processors), resource managers, and policy makers. The human system may also include the economic market (e.g., Mullon et al, 2017), or non-consumptive actors (Sanchirico et al, 2013;e.g., Tracey et al, 2013). Defining the relevant human sub-system is the first challenge.…”

Section: Predicting the Human Part Of The Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lessons from the First Generation of Marine Ecological Forecast Products

et al. 2017

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Recent years have seen a rapid expansion in the ability of earth system models to describe and predict the physical state of the ocean. Skilful forecasts ranging from seasonal (3 months) to decadal (5-10 years) time scales are now a reality. With the advance of these forecasts of ocean physics, the first generation of marine ecological forecasts has started to emerge. Such forecasts are potentially of great value in the management of living marine resources and for all of those who are dependent on the ocean for both nutrition and their livelihood; however, this is still a field in its infancy. We review the state of the art in this emerging field and identify the lessons that can be learnt and carried forward from these pioneering efforts. The majority of this first wave of products are forecasts of spatial distributions, possibly reflecting the inherent suitability of this response variable to the task of forecasting. Promising developments are also seen in forecasting fish-stock recruitment where, despite well-recognized challenges in understanding and predicting this response, new process knowledge and model approaches that could form a basis for forecasting are becoming available. Forecasts of phenology and coral-bleaching events are also being applied to monitoring and industry decisions. Moving marine ecological forecasting forward will require striking a balance between what is feasible and what is useful. We propose here a set of criteria to quickly identify "low-hanging fruit" that can potentially be predicted; however, ensuring the usefulness of forecast products also requires close collaboration with actively engaged end-users. Realizing the full potential of marine ecological forecasting will require bridging the gaps between marine ecology and climatology on the one-hand, and between science and end-users on the other. Nevertheless, the successes seen thus far and the potential to develop further products suggest that the field of marine ecological forecasting can be expected to flourish in the coming years.

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Exploring future scenarios for the global supply chain of tuna

Cited by 21 publications

References 60 publications

Túnidos tropicales: calentamiento global y seguridad alimentaria, una visión global

Túnidos tropicales: calentamiento global y seguridad alimentaria, una visión global

Southward re‐distribution of tropical tuna fisheries activity can be explained by technological and management change

Lessons from the First Generation of Marine Ecological Forecast Products

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