Exploring COVID-19 case fatality rate trends in the UnionTerritory of Jammu & Kashmir, India: A comprehensive study

Abstract

Background: In 2021, India witnessed a resurgence in Coronavirus cases, marking the onset of the second wave of the pandemic, six months after the first wave peaked in September 2020. This study aims to investigate trends and disparities in COVID-19 case-fatality rates across various districts within the Union territory of Kashmir Division during the period of escalating cases after the decline of the initial wave. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in a region of the Union territory of Jammu & Kashmir, India. After obtaining necessary permissions, data collection took spanned from November 1, 2020, to May 8, 2021. Aggregated weekly data from various zones in India was collected during the study period and exploratory analysis was conducted. Results: The data analysis reveals that, from November 2020 to May 2021, COVID-19 cases in the Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir demonstrated fluctuating tendencies. Notably, there was a substantial surge in March 2020, especially in Srinagar, which suggests the possibility of localised breakouts or dynamics of transmission. Even though Rapid Antigen Test (RAT) positivity rates were originally low in all districts, by the end of the study period, they had significantly increased, particularly in Srinagar and Shopian. This suggests that the dynamics of virus transmission may have changed, either as a result of new variations or behavioural changes. Conclusion: Our findings highlight those disparities in case-fatality rates between districts, whether low or high, are significantly influenced by the number of confirmed cases. Case-fatality rates were highly impacted by variations in the testing accessibility, containment strategies, and healthcare infrastructure. The results highlight how crucial it is to allocate resources fairly and implement focused interventions in order to lessen the pandemic's effects and safeguard the region's public health.