Exploration 1993: The Effects of Future Trends on Services to the Handicapped

Abstract

The past decade has been characterized by rapid changes in patterns of service to the handicapped. Groups are now being served who were never served before, in ways they were never served, and handicapped persons are participating increasingly in all aspects of society. These changes have resulted from pressures, conditions, and forces within and outside of fields providing services to the handicapped. With change occurring rapidly and on many fronts, we too often find ourselves in a reactive position, trying simply to keep up with events rather than systematically planning for change. This sometimes has resulted in hasty "make-do" policies and service arrangements. A more controlled posture toward change requires both lead time and some perspective as to the future. Thus, for practitioners and policymakers, anticipating change is becoming more and more important. Anticipatory policy decisions require that certain assumptions, implicit or explicit, be made about conditions in the future. Failure to consider future conditions indicates an implicit assumption either that future years will hold no change or that current trends will continue. The rapid rate of change in the last 50 years, particularly in services and rights for the handicapped, suggests that these assumptions would be shortsighted indeed. Policymakers' need for information concerning future decisions or practices in various fields has focused increasing attention on forecasting methodologies and the study of the future (Cornish, 1977). Though it is impossible to make highly accurate and specific predictions about the future, it is possible to identify patterns, potential trends, and alternate futures. With this information, policymakers are in a better position to make decisions that will maximize the probability that desirable events or conditions will occur and minimize the probability that undesirable alternatives will occur.