Explaining the pattern of “war on drugs” violence in the Philippines under Duterte

Abstract

A national “war on drugs” under former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte killed an estimated 12,000 to 30,000 victims. Duterte used state terror tactics, generating an unprecedented level of violence within a broader process of democratic backsliding. The violence peaked early, within the first few months of his term of office, then declined and remained low for years afterwards. How do campaigns of large‐scale state violence decline? This article explores the context‐specific drivers of the drug war's implementation in the Philippines. It presents findings from a model predicting violence escalation and de‐escalation using a Poisson regression to estimate the weekly number of killings from 2016 to 2021. The study's main finding is that the violence declined, and remained low throughout the rest of Duterte's term, due to the mobilization of accountability mechanisms—particularly over corruption controversies. This study offers insights into how resistance can impede autocratization, even in weak democracies.

Beyond essentialism: Knowledge production in Southeast Asian social science

“…Sol Iglesias(2023)在《杜特尔特统治下菲律宾“禁毒战争”的暴力模式分析》一文中表明，禁毒战争期间大规模杀戮的频率和强度不仅是“独裁者”行使意愿的结果，同时还受到一系列因素的影响，包括政府激励、制度约束与舆论。在《主张微型宗教少数群体的公民空间:来自印度尼西亚的证据》一文中，Hurriyah(2023)以西爪哇省的巽他维维坦(Sunda Wiwitan)为例，强调了“地方政府如何影响公民空间、宗教少数群体对此如何响应”一事中政治民主化与权力下放的相互作用。Mai Van Tran (2023)在《实现活动人士韧性:缅甸抗议镇压期间旁观者提供的保护》一文中通过分析表明，即使面对严重的国家镇压，民主活动家的持续生存和热情也能通过平民旁观者提供的保护得以加强，这些旁观者因活动家的苦难而感动并愿意承担风险来提供此类保护。Benjamas Nillsuwan(2023)在《应对全球难民复杂性并争夺控制权:泰国的掸族难民与移民》一文中指出，由于国际规范带来的压力（特别是在医疗保健和教育方面），泰国政府对清迈省掸族难民的响应与政策发生了变革。…”

“…En “Explicando los patrones de violencia de la “guerra contra las drogas” en Filipinas bajo Duterte”, Sol Iglesias (2023) muestra que la frecuencia e intensidad de los asesinatos en masa durante la guerra contra las drogas no fueron solo el resultado de un “hombre fuerte” ejerciendo su voluntad, sino más bien fueron influenciados por una variedad de factores que incluyen incentivos gubernamentales, restricciones institucionales y la opinión pública. En “Afirmación del espacio cívico de las minorías micro religiosas: Lecciones de Indonesia”, Hurriyah (2023) destaca la interacción entre la democratización política y la descentralización en la forma en que los gobiernos locales dan forma al espacio cívico y los grupos de minorías religiosas responden, utilizando el caso de Sunda Wiwitan en West Java.…”

“…In "Explaining the patterns of "war on drugs" violence in the Philippines under Duterte," Sol Iglesias (2023) shows that the frequency and intensity of mass killings during the war on drugs were not only the result of a "strong man" exercising his will but rather were influenced by a range of factors including government incentives, institutional constraints, and public opinion. In "Asserting civic space of the micro religious minorities: Lessons from Indonesia," Hurriyah (2023) highlights the interplay between political democratisation and decentralisation in how local governments shape civic space and religious minority groups respond, using the case of the Sunda Wiwitan in West Java.…”