Explaining the Decision to Withdraw from a U.S. Presidential Nomination Campaign

Abstract

We contend that a candidate's decision to exit from a U.S. presidential nomination campaign is a function of three sets of considerations: the potential for profile elevation, party-related costs, and updated perceptions of competitiveness. We analyze data from eleven post-reform presidential nomination campaigns and find support for all three considerations. Specifically, our results suggest that in addition to candidates' competitiveness, the decision to withdraw is a function of candidates' closeness to their party and ability to raise their profile. At the same time, some of our results contradict the conventional wisdom regarding presidential nomination campaigns, as we find no evidence that media coverage or cash on hand directly affect the duration of a nomination candidacy.

Partisan Dynamics in Presidential Primaries and Campaign Divisiveness

“…Interestingly, money on hand, an important predictor of primary success, has no effect on whether a candidate drops out of the race in either model. This suggests that even poorly funded candidates with little chance of winning are likely to continue running, perhaps because some candidates are truly "advocacy" candidates and sustain their campaign to make a point, rather than win the nomination, consistent with previous work on candidate exit (e.g., Damore, Hansford, & Barghothi, 2010). Other significant results include the ratio of primaries to caucuses variable, which produces an increase in the hazard.…”

Monkey Business: The Effect of Scandals on Presidential Primary Nominations

“…In a crowded nomination field, as many of the cases examined here were, attention to an individual’s campaign may provide a temporary (and modest) boost to a candidate’s campaign. Some evidence suggests that a candidate’s duration in a race is a function more of their ability to raise their profile rather than raising funds or media coverage (Damore, Hansford and Barghothi 2010). Other scholars have demonstrated that the effects of scandal on candidate approval is short lived (Miller Vonnahme 2014).…”