Explaining South Africa's Racial Census

Abstract

In all South African elections since 1994, race has been an overwhelming predictor of voting behavior for most of the South African electorate. This paper evaluates three explanations for this outcome: an expressive hypothesis, which sees voting as an act of identity expression; a politics-as-usual approach, which points to standard factors like policy preferences or performance evaluations; and a racial heuristics approach, which suggests that voters use race as a cognitive shortcut during elections. It finds that racial heuristics, combined with performance evaluations, provide the best explanation for South Africa's racial census.

Exit over Voice in Dominican Ethnoracial Politics

“…If so, ethnoracial voting would seem most probable in ethnoracially stratified societies, where marginalized individuals stand much to gain 4 from mobilizing politically along ethnoracial lines. I define ethnoracial-based voting behavior as the practice of routinely voting for a party or candidate that is perceived as representing an individual's ethnoracial identification (Ferree 2006).…”

Ethnic Favoritism in Education in Kenya

“…The assumption of ethnic favoritism is reflected in the results of public opinion polls conducted across the continent (KIPPRA Research Team, 2012) and undergirds the leading theories that have been advanced to explain voting behavior (Bates, 1983;Carlson, 2015;Ferree, 2006;Ichino and Nathan, 2013;Posner, 2005), economic policymaking (Easterly and Levine, 1997), and the structure of clientelist networks (Wantchekon, 2003), among other outcomes. However, while anecdotal examples of ethnic favoritism abound, the volume of systematic empirical work documenting its existence is incommensurate with the importance of the phenomenon in our understanding of African affairs.…”

Opposition Growth in Dominant Party Systems: Coalitions in South Africa

“…As will be shown, opposition strategies have shifted significantly from those employed in the late 1990s. Much as Ferree (2011) argues that the South African party system is attributable to the African National Congress's political strategies, not just to unconscious identity voting, I argue that opposition parties' strategies are also responsible for the party system and, particularly, for changes in it over time.…”

“…Specifically, I look at South Africa, where the ruling party's strategy certainly contributes to its continued dominance (Ferree 2011). However, the strategic choices of the opposition also matter.…”