Explaining Human Fertility

Abstract

Recent attempts at a sociological explanation of various aspects of fertility in industrial societies have, with two partial exceptions, failed, and for three reasons: they have placed too great a reliance on survey methods, they have ignored the causal importance of people's intentions, and they have eschewed theory. Recent developments in population theory, stressing the idea of self-regulation, can provide a sociological model with which some progress appears to be possible, although there are technical difficulties.

Cultural explanations of fertility differences

“…We know, from demographic studies, that the aggregate effect of these private decisions among people who share some social characteristic is systematic differences in the levels of fertility, as for example between persons of differing nationality, ethnic origin, religion, socio-economic status, occupation. But, as Hawthorn (1968) has cogently argued, we are here dealing essentially with surface correlations, such as the molar relationship between social phenomena, and not logical correlations, such as the connection between the phenomena which are explicable in terms of their causal relationships. To interpret the surface correlations between levels of fertility and the social indicators with which the fertility may vary systematically, we need to spell out the linkage between them in rationally understandable steps.…”

“…In other words, culture here provides the basis of what Hawthorn calls the 'causal explanations of fertility', that is, the connection between the social structure on the one hand and fertility intentions on the other (Hawthorn, 1968).…”

“…Here, one is postulating that socio-economic status necessarily implies differences in beliefs, values, norms and meanings which, furthermore, manifest themselves as 'intentions' in the orientations of the people so classified to control their reproductive behaviour and so influence the fertility level. In other words, culture here provides the basis of what Hawthorn calls the 'causal explanations of fertility', that is, the connection between the social structure on the one hand and fertility intentions on the other (Hawthorn, 1968).…”

Urban Life and Differential Fertility: Specification of an Aspect of the Theory of the Demographic Transition

“…Some writers concerned with explaining fertility levels and differentials have also advocated theoretical precision, but unfortunately they have not followed their own suggestions. For example, see Banks (1954:206-207) and Hawthorne (1968).…”

“…' Thus far demography has been somewhat lacking in theoretical explanations. A number of writers have lamented this situation (see Hauser, 1948;Vance, 1952;Moore, 1959;Gibbs, 1965;Hawthorne, 1968), and some have attempted to defend the theoretical character of demographic research (Guttman, 1960). However, even those who rise "in defense of population theory" must admit that population phenomena are rarely explained in terms of determinate relationships among particular variables.…”