Explaining House Price Dynamics: Isolating the Role of Nonfundamentals

Abstract

This paper examines the role of nonfundamentals-based sentiment in house price dynamics, including the well-documented volatility and persistence of house prices during booms and busts. To measure and isolate sentiment's effect, we employ survey-based indicators that proxy for the sentiment of three major agents in housing markets: home buyers (demand side), home builders (supply side), and lenders (credit suppliers). After orthogonalizing each sentiment measure against a broad set of fundamental variables, we find strong and consistent evidence that the changing sentiment of all three sets of market participants predicts house price appreciation in subsequent quarters, above and beyond the impact of changes in lagged price changes, fundamentals, and market liquidity. More specifically, a one-standard-deviation shock to market sentiment is associated with a 32-57 basis point increase in real house price appreciation over the next two quarters. These price effects are large relative to the average real price appreciation of 71 basis points per quarter observed over the full sample period. Moreover, housing market sentiment and its effect on real house prices is highly persistent. The results also reveal that the dynamic relation between sentiment and house prices can create feedback effects that contribute to the persistence typically observed in house price movements during boom and bust cycles.JEL codes: R3, R21

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