Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective

Herring, Stephanie C.; Hoerling, Martin P.; Kossin, James P.; Peterson, Thomas C.; Stott, Peter A.

doi:10.1175/bams-explainingextremeevents2014.1

Cited by 114 publications

(121 citation statements)

References 150 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

117

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…And if plausible uncertainties are placed on those changes, then the result is likely to be 'no effect detected'. This is indeed what tends to be concluded in event attribution studies of dynamically driven extremes [31]. But absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.…”

Section: Dynamic and Thermodynamic Mechanismssupporting

confidence: 69%

A Common Framework for Approaches to Extreme Event Attribution

Shepherd

2016

Curr Clim Change Rep

184

156

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The extent to which a given extreme weather or climate event is attributable to anthropogenic climate change is a question of considerable public interest. From a scientific perspective, the question can be framed in various ways, and the answer depends very much on the framing. One such framing is a risk-based approach, which answers the question probabilistically, in terms of a change in likelihood of a class of event similar to the one in question, and natural variability is treated as noise. A rather different framing is a storyline approach, which examines the role of the various factors contributing to the event as it unfolded, including the anomalous aspects of natural variability, and answers the question deterministically. It is argued that these two apparently irreconcilable approaches can be viewed within a common framework, where the most useful level of conditioning will depend on the question being asked and the uncertainties involved.

show abstract

Section: Dynamic and Thermodynamic Mechanismssupporting

confidence: 69%

A Common Framework for Approaches to Extreme Event Attribution

Shepherd

2016

Curr Clim Change Rep

184

156

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…See Herring et al (2015). For instance, climate change also decreased the Antarctic sea ice extent and increased the likelihood of high sea surface temperatures in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disasters in the United States: Frequency, Costs, and Compensation

Brusentsev¹,

Vroman²

2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemisphere snow/ice cover are decreasing, the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are losing mass, and many glaciers worldwide are receding [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19]. Furthermore, climate change increases human vulnerability due to temperature and precipitation anomalies that can lead to events such as heat waves, intensified drought, storms, sea-level rise, and flooding [6,[20][21][22][23][24][25][26]. The Karakoram Mountain Range in Pakistan features some of the largest glaciers on Earth outside of the Polar Regions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate–Glacier Dynamics and Topographic Forcing in the Karakoram Himalaya: Concepts, Issues and Research Directions

Dobreva

Bishop

Bush

2017

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:Understanding climate-glacier dynamics in High Mountain Asia is of critical importance to address issues including water resources, sea-level rise, mountain geodynamics, natural hazards and ecosystem sustainability. The Karakoram Himalaya is arguably the least understood region, given its extreme topography, climate-system coupling, and advancing and surge-type glaciers that exhibit complex flow patterns. Glacier fluctuations in the Karakoram Himalaya are highly variable in space and time because of numerous controlling factors, including the westerlies, the Indian summer monsoon, various teleconnections, topographic effects, glacier debris-cover characteristics, glacier dynamics, and geological conditions. The influence of the integrative coupling of forcing factors, however, has not been adequately assessed for characterizing the glaciers in the Karakoram Himalaya. Given the scarcity of in-situ data and the difficulty of conducting fieldwork on these glaciers, recent research has focused on utilizing remote sensing, geospatial technologies, and scientific modeling to obtain baseline information about the state of glaciers in the region. This review summarizes our current knowledge of glaciers, climate-glacier interaction, and topographic forcing in the Karakoram Himalaya, and demonstrates the complexities in mountain geodynamics that influence climate-glacier dynamics. Innovative analysis is also presented in support of our review and discussion.

show abstract

Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective

Abstract: Editors note: For easy download the posted pdf of the Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 is a very low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.

Cited by 114 publications

References 150 publications

A Common Framework for Approaches to Extreme Event Attribution

A Common Framework for Approaches to Extreme Event Attribution

Disasters in the United States: Frequency, Costs, and Compensation

Climate–Glacier Dynamics and Topographic Forcing in the Karakoram Himalaya: Concepts, Issues and Research Directions

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About