Explaining Exit to Work among Social Assistance Recipients in Norway: Heterogeneity or Dependency?

Dahl, Espen; Lorentzen, Thomas

doi:10.1093/esr/19.5.519

Cited by 50 publications

(66 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…The predominant pattern was a bell-shaped pattern where the chance of leaving first increases and thereafter declines. This is also what Dahl and Lorentzen (2003) found in Norway in relation to exits from welfare recipiency into work. Dahl and Lorentzen analyse data similar to those utilized in the present study, that is, the total population of Norwegian welfare recipients, although during a slightly different time period.…”

Section: Duration: Perspectives and Empirical Findingssupporting

confidence: 85%

“…The dependency discourse has also been fuelled by empirical evidence revealing that the likelihood of exiting welfare recipiency declines with the length of the period spent on welfare (Andrén and Gustafsson, Journal of European Social Policy 2011 21 (5) 2004; Gottschalk and Moffitt, 1994), while critics of these findings argue that the decreasing exit rates are likely to be an effect of selection processes and unobserved heterogeneity among recipients (Contini and Negri, 2007;Dahl and Lorentzen, 2003). Further, in a comparative study of eight European cities, no general pattern of negative duration dependence was found (Gustafsson et al, 2002).…”

Section: Duration: Perspectives and Empirical Findingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Escaping welfare? Social assistance dynamics in Sweden

Bäckman

Bergmark

2011

Journal of European Social Policy

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The article analyses temporal patterns in social assistance receipt in Sweden in the 2000s by looking at which circumstances facilitate versus reduce the possibilities of a person ceasing to be a recipient of social assistance. The analysis is guided by the following questions: What conditions lead people to terminate periods of social assistance receipt? Which factors are central to exits with different subsequent income patterns? How do these explain the different situations of recipients prior to termination? We focus particularly on income maintenance prior to spells of social assistance. We use event history data on monthly social assistance take-up covering the total adult Swedish population for the years 2002-2004. We adopt a gamma mixture model to control for unobserved heterogeneity. The results suggest that previous experience of both employment and social assistance receipt are important determinants for all types of exits from social assistance recipiency. A negative duration dependence is found also when unobserved heterogeneity is controlled for.

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Section: Duration: Perspectives and Empirical Findingssupporting

confidence: 85%

Section: Duration: Perspectives and Empirical Findingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Escaping welfare? Social assistance dynamics in Sweden

Bäckman

Bergmark

2011

Journal of European Social Policy

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“…Notable exceptions are two U.S. studies based on monthly administrative data from California (Chay, Hoynes & Hyslop, 1999) and four-monthly survey data (Chay & Hyslop, 2014), and a study of transitions between Australian benefit programmes based on quarterly data (Gong, 2004). A small number of studies have moreover used monthly data and an event-history framework to analyse welfare spell durations for the U.S. (Blank, 1989;Sandefur & Cook, 1998), Norway (Dahl & Lorentzen, 2003b), Sweden (Bäckman & Bergmark, 2011;Mood, 2013), and Germany (Schels, 2013), each finding evidence for duration dependence in welfare benefit receipt.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time Aggregation and State Dependence in Welfare Receipt

2014

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Dynamic discrete-choice models are an important tool in studies of state dependence in benefit receipt. A common assumption of such models is that benefit receipt sequences follow a conditional Markov process. This property has implications for how estimated periodto-period benefit transition probabilities should relate when receipt processes are aggregated over time. This paper assesses whether the conditional Markov property holds in welfare benefit receipt dynamics in Norway using high-quality monthly data from administrative records. We find that the standard conditional Markov model is seriously misspecified. Estimated state dependence is affected substantially by the chosen time unit of analysis, with the average treatment effect of past benefit receipt increasing with the level of aggregation. The model can be improved considerably by permitting richer types of benefit dynamics: We find strong evidence for both duration and occurrence dependence in benefit receipt. Allowing for heterogeneity in the entry and persistence processes, we find important disparities in the effects of observed and persistent unobserved characteristics. Based on our preferred model, the month-to-month persistence probability in benefit receipt for a first-time entrant is 37 percentage points higher than the entry rate of an individual without previous benefit receipt. Over a 12-month period, this corresponds to an average treatment effect of 5 percentage points. Terms of use: Documents in D I S C U S S I O N P A P E R S E R I E SJEL Classification: I38, J60, J64, C23, C41

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“…Noe av denne heterogeniteten fanges opp av skillet mellom langtids-og korttidsmottakere av sosialhjelp som vi vil bruke i denne analysen. Tidligere forskning har vist at det saerlig er langtidsmottakere som rapporterer om sammensatte problemer og mangel på sosiale ressurser (8,25,37).…”

Section: Innledningunclassified

“…Til tross for disse mulighetene for feilklassifisering viser det seg at varighet som sosialhjelpsmottaker over en periode på ett år er en sentral og robust markør for sosiale og helsemessige problemer. Dette er i tråd med annen forskning på området (25,37). Dødeligheten blant sosialhjelpsmottakere i perioden 1994-2003 var betydelig høyere enn blant dem som ikke mottok sosialhjelp.…”

Section: Diskusjonunclassified

Sosialhjelpsmottakeres dødelighet: I hvilken grad kan overdødeligheten tilskrives deres sosiale status?

Naper¹,

Dahl²

2009

Nor J Epidemiol

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SAMMENDRAGI denne artikkelen undersøker vi dødelighet blant sosialhjelpsmottakere i Norge, som sammenlignes med dødeligheten i resten av befolkningen, og om en antatt overdødelighet kan forklares ved sosiale forhold som kjennetegner dem som har status som sosialhjelpsmottakerne, og som har betydning for dødelighetsnivå.Data er hentet fra FD-trygd og omfatter hele den norske befolkningen i aldersgruppen 18-57 år i 1992. Vi analyserer dødeligheten fra 1994 til 2003. Sosialhjelpsmottakere er definert som personer som mottok sosialhjelp i 1993 (N=146 176), og det skilles mellom korttids-og langtidsmottakere (≥ 6 måneder). Menn og kvinner behandles separat. En serie multiple Cox regresjonsmodeller er estimert for å belyse problemstillingene.Den enkleste modellen, som kun inneholder sosialhjelp og alder, viser at dødeligheten til sosialhjelpsmottakere er langt høyere enn andres. Hasardratioene (HR) for mannlige kortidsmottakere av sosialhjelp sammenlignet med befolkningen er 3,5 (95% KI = 3,34-3,62), for langtidsmottakere 4,8 (4,64-5,01). For kvinner er HR henholdsvis 2,8 (2,60-2,93) og 3,9 (3,66-4,15). Overdødeligheten blant sosialhjelpsmottakere reduseres ettersom forklaringsvariablene introduseres. I den fulle modellen, som inneholder alder, sivilstand, utdanning, inntekt og uførepensjon, er HR for kvinner redusert med 60 prosent for korttidsmottakere, og 50 prosent for langtidsmottakere, noe mindre for menn. HR er fortsatt høye i de justerte modellene, saerlig for langtidsmottakere av sosialhjelp. De er nå for menn, korttid: 2,1 (1,98-2,15) og langtid: 3,1 (2,98-3,23), kvinner, korttid: 1,7 (1,61-1,82) og langtid: 2,5 (2,29-2,62).I lys av tidligere forskning på feltet argumenter vi for at et livsløpsperspektiv er fruktbart for å forstå sosialhjelpsmottakeres overdødelighet. Samtidig peker vi på flere trekk ved posisjonen som sosialhjelpsmottaker som kan vaere helseskadelig. ENGLISH SUMMARYIn this article we analyse the mortality of the recipients of social assistance (SA) in Norway, asking to which degree it deviates from that of the general population, and to which extent the hypothesized excess mortality may be explained by socioeconomic factors that characterize the SA recipients. The data are collected from administrative registries that cover the entire population. Our research population is restricted to those aged 18-57 years at baseline in 1992. Social assistance and income is measured in 1993, and the other covariates are measured at baseline. Mortality is measured during a period of ten years (1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003). Men and women are analysed separately. A series of Cox's regression models are estimated to examine the research questions, and hazard ratios (HR) are reported.The mortality of SA recipients, only adjusted for age, is considerably higher than the mortality of the rest of the population. The age-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for male short term SA recipients is 3.5 (95% CI = 3.34-3.62) and for long term recipients (≥ 6 months) 4.8 (4.64-5.01). For women the...

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Explaining Exit to Work among Social Assistance Recipients in Norway: Heterogeneity or Dependency?

Cited by 50 publications

References 13 publications

Escaping welfare? Social assistance dynamics in Sweden

Escaping welfare? Social assistance dynamics in Sweden

Time Aggregation and State Dependence in Welfare Receipt

Sosialhjelpsmottakeres dødelighet: I hvilken grad kan overdødeligheten tilskrives deres sosiale status?

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