2019
DOI: 10.1101/19002154
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Expert-validated estimation of diagnostic uncertainty for deep neural networks in diabetic retinopathy detection

Abstract: Deep learning-based systems can achieve a diagnostic performance comparable to physicians in a variety of medical use cases including the diagnosis of diabetic retinopathy. To be useful in clinical practise, it is necessary to have well calibrated measures of the uncertainty with which these systems report their decisions. However, deep neural networks (DNNs) are being often overconfident in their predictions, and are not amenable to a straightforward probabilistic treatment. Here, we describe an intu… Show more

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Cited by 43 publications
(64 citation statements)
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References 43 publications
(25 reference statements)
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“…For comparative studies of existing uncertainty estimation methods, we choose VGGNet with 16 layers as our baseline DNN. We implemented SelectiveNet (Geifman and El-Yaniv 2019), TTAUG (Ayhan et al 2020) and DbFF (Sarker et al 2020) on the same baseline DNN to ensure fair comparison. Among these three methods, SelectiveNet requires most modification.…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 2 more Smart Citations
“…For comparative studies of existing uncertainty estimation methods, we choose VGGNet with 16 layers as our baseline DNN. We implemented SelectiveNet (Geifman and El-Yaniv 2019), TTAUG (Ayhan et al 2020) and DbFF (Sarker et al 2020) on the same baseline DNN to ensure fair comparison. Among these three methods, SelectiveNet requires most modification.…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…First, we present the experimental studies on the effectiveness of existing methods on the COVIDx dataset (Wang and Wong 2020). We compare state-of-the-art methods, Selec-tiveNet (Geifman and El-Yaniv 2019), TTAUG (Ayhan et al 2020) and DbFF (Sarker et al 2020), and report the results in Table 1. Please note, for fair comparison, we report Se-lectiveNet results when trained their model with 100% coverage and then calibrated to the desired abstention rate.…”
Section: Comparative Study Of Existing Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…networks that are inher-ently well calibrated, for the task of diabetic retinopathy classification on both RDR and PIRC classifications. For this reason we leave out the analysis of post-hoc methods, such as the test-time augmentation introduced in Ayhan and Berens [11] and Ayhan et al [19], neural network softmax temperature scaling, and probability binning strategies [4]. Many measures of uncertainty have been used in the previous works.…”
Section: Mainmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In Leibig et al [9], the standard deviation of the output of the BNN and the entropy of the posterior predictive distribution were considered as measures of uncertainty and found to perform similarly. In Filos et al [12], Ayhan et al [19], and Band et al [18] the entropy was also selected as the measure of uncertainty. On the other hand, the mutual information between the parameters of the model and the output was considered as the measure of uncertainty in Farquhar et al [10].…”
Section: Mainmentioning
confidence: 99%