Expert Systems Archeological Predictive Model

Abstract

This paper reports on the deployment of a predictive model that combines spatial analysis and fuzzy logic modeling to translate expert archeological knowledge into predictive surfaces. Analytic predictive archeological models have great utility for state departments of transportation, and some states have invested millions of dollars in such models. However, classic statistical modeling approaches often require too much data and create questions about whether areas are categorized as low probability because (a) there are no sites or (b) no surveys have been conducted there. However, this process can build robust models around typically sparse archeological data and is not subject to spatial bias. These models are intended to lower overall project costs by identifying corridors with a lower probability of having archeological sites, not to supplant field surveys once a corridor has been chosen. Five influencing factors were defined by archeologists and were calculated with the ArcGIS platform. The archeologists then informed a fuzzy logic induction process that was mapped to output probability functions. These data were geocoded into ArcGIS output surfaces that showed the probability of encountering artifacts. The predictive results were tested through a blind control protocol against cleansed archeological data. These models were shown to perform as well as or better than traditional statistical models and required much less data. The Kentucky implementation includes the superior predictive coverage and, more important, a suite of tools to allow the ArcGIS-competent archeologist to design and execute new modeling routines or to build new models. The availability of higher-quality geographic information systems data will also allow archeologists to update the model.

Collaborative Geodesign for Alternative-Fuel Station Location using “Collablocation” Software

“…Geodesign cannot be expected to generate or coerce ''consensus'' or complete agreement on solutions (34)(35)(36)(37). In a relatively small expert group such as the one that piloted the platform, a strong measure of convergence was observed during the final stage on six specific locations and two other general areas.…”

“…The design of the collaborative geodesign workshop was based on the structured group process method developed and used by research team members in previous applications such as: collaborative highway corridor location ( 34 ); collaborative electric powerline placement ( 35 ); archaeological site modeling for highway agencies ( 36 ); and context-sensitive large bridge design ( 37 ). These group methods are all based on the value forum approach that elicits, evaluates, and applies decision criteria from small expert groups ( 38 ).…”

UFlow 1.0: A Computer Model for Projections of Urban Sprawl

“…Studies aiming the historical reconstruction of archeological sites actually use techniques for simulation of cities, such as Cellular Automata (Ripy et al, 2014), Procedural Generation (Adão et al, 2012) and Virtual Reality (Liu and Tang, 2003).…”