Expert Estimation of the Ways for Creating Energy Security Potential in Latvia

Abstract

Object of the research is the condition of energy supply in Latvia. Goal of the researchanalysis of data on electric energy production in Latvia and expert estimate of the ways for creating energy security potential of the country. Methods of the research are analysis of statistical data, and methods of expert evaluation. Novelty of the paper is conditioned by the fact that expert estimation of the possible ways for creation of energy security potential of Latvia has been performed for the first time, and the consolidated opinion of a group of independent experts has been obtained on the most prospective ways. One of the main aims is diversification of ways of energy resources supply to Latvia. By the year 2030, the Ministry of Economic Affairs of the Republic of Latvia has been planning to decrease the volume of imported energy resources by 2 times and produce half of the energy by using its own renewable energy sources. Currently there are the ongoing negotiations in Latvia about the construction of another large hydropower plant (HPP) with the output of about 200 MW on the Daugava River. In the discussions the new HPP is considered to be a more ecological and economic alternative than the construction of Visaginas Nuclear PP. The estimates obtained from the expert query show large differences in their opinions. Altogether four methods are used for the processing of results of expert estimation, all the results of alternative ranking are compared and analysed by four methods. The conducted analysis makes it possible to conclude the following: the most promising directions for electric energy industry development in Latvia and, on this basis, for the creation of energy security potential of the country is the construction of HPP and heat power plants using its own energy resources. The direction of wind power industry development is recognised as important.