Experimental drought threat forecast for Florida

Brolley, Justin; O’Brien, James J.; Schoof, J. T.; Zierden, David

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2007.04.003

Cited by 21 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Goodrick (2002) used the KBDI in a similar manner to enhance the performance of the Fosberg Fire Weather Index (Fosberg, 1978) as a tool for predicting the area burned by wildfires. Brolley et al (2007) examined the potential of using the KBDI for seasonal forecasts of drought based on the state of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in global wildfire potential in a changing climate

Liu

Stanturf

Goodrick

2010

Forest Ecology and Management

598

343

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in global wildfire potential in a changing climate

Liu

Stanturf

Goodrick

2010

Forest Ecology and Management

598

343

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“…However the late spring/early summer season following an El Niño often turns drier than normal, leading to increased wildfire outbreaks for early summer, as occurred in Florida in 1998 (Brzuszek et al 2010). An evaluation of the KBDI forecast for Florida found high skill from January to March, when ENSO effects are strongest (Brolley et al 2007), while from April to June, forecast skill was weaker. The skill generally decreases as lead time increases and also varies for each ENSO phase depending on month and location.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…The initial impetus for the wildfire risk forecast stemmed from an inquiry by a Florida fireworks company, which was interested in predicting wildfire outbreaks because bans on burning during high fire activity periods negatively affected its business. In response, SECC scientists developed a seasonal climate forecast (Brolley et al 2007) that integrates the mean monthly values of the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), a continuous reference scale for dryness of soil and duff layers (Keetch and Byram 1968). The KBDI forecast was then presented at the National Fire Climate workshop for the southeastern US to elicit expert feedback.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Given the high stakes and costs involved in fire management, stakeholders are reluctant to act upon forecasts without a clear measure of its reliability (Corringham et al 2008) Though evidence of forecast skill is available in scholarly journals (Brolley et al 2007), translating such information in accessible and actionable terms remains a challenge. The spatially variable skill of ENSO-based forecasts-stronger in southern Georgia and peninsular Florida, weaker in the fire-prone Piedmont-added to the uncertainty.…”

Section: Persisting Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

The art of the science: climate forecasts for wildfire management in the southeastern United States

Roncoli

Breuer

Zierden³

et al. 2012

Climatic Change

Self Cite

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This article illustrates how a wildfire risk forecast evolved iteratively based on stakeholder consultations. An assessment based on phone interviews indicates that such forecasts can assist fire management decisions, such as deployment of human, financial, and material resources and management of forest, timber, and habitats, and public safety. But careful attention to communication, collaboration, and capacity building is key to realizing this potential.

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“…It has been found that during cold AMO phases there is reduced streamflow over Lake Okeechobee (Enfield et al 2001) and fewer drought events over Florida (McCabe 2004). On the other hand, less precipitation and warmer temperatures have been observed during La Niña years, increasing the drought risk throughout Florida (Brolley et al 2007). …”

Section: Droughts and Climate Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate and Weather Extremes

Collins¹,

Paxton²,

Wahl³

et al. 2017

Florida’s Climate: Changes, Variations, &Amp; Impacts

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Key Messages• The state of Florida is prone to various types of weather extremes, with tropical cyclones being the most dangerous in terms of impact potential.• Most types of extreme events exhibit a seasonal cycle making it more likely for them to occur at certain times of the year. Many of them are also sensitive to large-scale climate variation resulting in strong interannual to multidecadal variability. The most important climate indicator for extreme weather in Florida is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).• Strong spatial variability of extreme events and related hazards exists across the state, with certain areas more susceptible to particular weather hazards than others. Maps of observed frequencies of the different types of events in the past can help identify hot spots.• Attribution of climatic extremes is challenging because of insufficient observational records (with strong variability) and limitations in models with regards to resolution and complexity of the processes involved in the genesis of extreme events. This is also the reason for large uncertainties in future projections of most types of extreme events.• There is, however, agreement that changes in the mean, which are better represented in climate models, will also affect the extremes (e.g., increasing mean sea level will affect storm surge heights and frequency).

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Experimental drought threat forecast for Florida

Cited by 21 publications

References 8 publications

Trends in global wildfire potential in a changing climate

Trends in global wildfire potential in a changing climate

The art of the science: climate forecasts for wildfire management in the southeastern United States

Climate and Weather Extremes

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