Experimental design for Partially Observed Markov Decision Processes

Thorbergsson, Leifur; Hooker, Giles

doi:10.48550/arxiv.1209.4019

2012

DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.1209.4019

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Experimental design for Partially Observed Markov Decision Processes

Leifur Thorbergsson¹,

Giles Hooker²

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“…There is also room to design experiments that would yield behavior in which missing state variables, such as the second algal population in the chemostat data, is more readily detected by the tests proposed here. Hooker, Lin and Rogers (2015) and Thorbergsson and Hooker (2013) present some experimental design methods for dynamical systems in which inputs are perturbed so that observations yield optimal information about parameters of interest. Mork work is needed to adapt these techniques to our tests.…”

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confidence: 99%

Goodness of fit in nonlinear dynamics: Misspecified rates or misspecified states?

Hooker¹,

Ellner²

2015

Ann. Appl. Stat.

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This paper introduces diagnostic tests for the nature of lack of fit in ordinary differential equation models (ODEs) proposed for data. We present a hierarchy of three possible sources of lack of fit: unaccounted-for stochastic variation, misspecification of functional forms in rate equations, and omission of dynamic variables in the description of the system. We represent lack of fit by allowing a parameter vector to vary over time, and propose generic testing procedures that do not rely on specific alternative models. Instead, different sources for lack of fit are characterized in terms of nonparametric relationships among latent variables. The tests are carried out through a combination of residual bootstrap and permutation methods. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these tests on simulated data and on real data from laboratory ecological experiments and electro-cardiogram data.

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Goodness of fit in nonlinear dynamics: Misspecified rates or misspecified states?

Hooker¹,

Ellner²

2015

Ann. Appl. Stat.

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Experimental design for Partially Observed Markov Decision Processes

Cited by 1 publication

References 0 publications

Goodness of fit in nonlinear dynamics: Misspecified rates or misspecified states?

Goodness of fit in nonlinear dynamics: Misspecified rates or misspecified states?

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