Experience in registration of variations caused by strong earthquakes in the level and physicochemical parameters of ground waters in the piezometric wells: the case of Kamchatka

Копылова, Г. Н.; Болдина, С. В.; Smirnov, A. A.; Chubarova, E. G.

doi:10.3103/s0747923917040065

Cited by 13 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 2 publications

(5 reference statements)

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“…Since 2003, the Kamchatka Branch, Geophysical Survey, Russian Academy of Sciences (KB GS RAS) has been carrying out observations of water level changes in the YuZ-5 well with an interval of 5 min using instrumentation manufactured by LLC Polinom, Khabarovsk (Kopylova et al, 2016).…”

Section: Technical Conditions Of Observations and Initial Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The passage of surface seismic waves from the strongest earthquakes with М w of about 8-9 at epicentral distances of hundreds to thousands of kilometers due to water level variations (hydroseisms) with amplitudes of up to 9 cm and durations of several hours to one day. More detailed data on the well structure, elastic and filtering properties of water-saturated rocks, regularities of the hydrogeodynamic regime, and earthquake effects in water level changes are presented in our earlier publications (Kopylova, 2006a;Kopylova and Boldina, 2006;Kopylova et al, 2010Kopylova et al, , 2016Kopylova, 2016, 2017) and in publications by other authors.…”

Section: Technical Conditions Of Observations and Initial Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Statistical Analysis of Precision Water Level Data from Observations in a Seismoactive Region: Case Study of the YuZ-5 Well, Kamchatka

2019

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A new method is presented for statistical analysis of long-term time series of water level observations aimed at distinguishing short-term disturbances; observation data from the YuZ-5 well, located in the Petropavlovsk Geodynamic Test Area, eastern Kamchatka, are considered. These data (from July 27, 2012, to February 1, 2018) are remarkable for their degree of detail: the sampling rate of the water level and atmospheric pressure measurements was 5 min and the sensitivity (accuracy) was ±0.1 cm for water level recording and ±0.1 hPa for atmospheric pressure. Also, five strong earthquakes with M w = 6.5-8.3 occurred at epicentral distances of d e = 80-700 km during the observation period. A thorough analysis of the hydrodynamic regime of the observation well over a long period and the high quality of observation data, together with the data on strong seismic events, allow us to consider the possibility of using formalized statistical methods of water level data processing for diagnostics of anomalous conditions. As a result of factor and cluster analysis applied to the sequence of multidimensional vectors of the statistical properties of water level time series in successive one-day-long time windows, after adaptive compensation for atmospheric pressure, four different statistically significant states of time series, replacing each other in time, are distinguished. Geophysical interpretation of the anomalous conditions of the water level time series (with a probability of 0.013) is carried out in comparison to strong earthquakes, technical conditions of observations, and seasonal features of the hydrodynamic regime in the observation well. It is shown that this method of water level data processing can detect short-term anomalies in the hydrogeodynamic regime of a well, significantly supplementing traditional processing of water level data aimed mostly at finding low-frequency trends in water level changes. This method can be applied in geophysical monitoring and prediction of earthquakes from online processing of water level data in wells.

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Section: Technical Conditions Of Observations and Initial Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Technical Conditions Of Observations and Initial Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical Analysis of Precision Water Level Data from Observations in a Seismoactive Region: Case Study of the YuZ-5 Well, Kamchatka

2019

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“…Съем и обработка данных осуществлялись один раз в две недели. С 2010 г. использовалась аппаратура серии Кедр ДМ с передачей данных по каналам сотовой связи [Копылова и др., 2016;Kopylova et al, 2017]. Аналогичные комплекты оборудования также были установлены ОАО "Камчатгеология" еще на пяти скважинах на территории Камчатского края для проведения гидрогеодинамического мониторинга по методике ВСЕГИНГЕО [Копылова, Смолина, 2009; Копылова и др., 2007].…”

Section: история гидрогеосейсмологическихunclassified

“…2а). Эти землетрясения, а также другие сейсмические события 2013 г. с величинами магнитуд М w ≥ 6.0, сопровождались косейсмическими скачками повышения и понижения уровня воды в скважине ЮЗ-5 с амплитудами Δh от 0.2 до 7 см [Копылова и др., 2016;Kopylova et al, 2017] (рис. 5б, 5в), которые соответствовали оценкам амплитуд и характеру косейсмической объемной деформации в районе скважины по модели протяженного дислокационного источника [Okada, 1985] с параметрами очагов из международного каталога тензоров сейсмического момента землетрясений Global CMT (http://www.globalcmt.org/) [Болдина, Копылова, 2016].…”

Section: история гидрогеосейсмологическихunclassified

Hydrogeoseismological Research in Kamchatka: 1977–2017

Kopylova¹,

Boldina²

2019

Вулканология и сейсмология

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This paper is concerned with the main stages in the setting-up and technical development of a system specializing in physical and chemical parameters of groundwater at a network of wells and springs in the Petropavlovsk Geodynamic Test Area, Kamchatka. The focus is on a description of hydrogeochemical and hydrogeodynamic precursors to Kamchatka earthquakes (Мw = 6.6‒7.8) that occur a few weeks to a few months before a seismic event, manifesting themselves in anomalous changes in chemical composition and groundwater level. The precursors are discussed in application to their use at specialized councils on earthquake prediction. It is shown that the system of automated observation of groundwater parameters at wells as developed at the Kamchatka Branch of the Geophysical Survey of the Russian Academy of Sciences (KB GS RAS) is capable of identifying hydrogeodynamic precursors of water-level in near real time and of providing, in some particular cases, quantitative estimates of pre-seismic and coseismic deformation of water-saturated rocks. This can be useful in geophysical monitoring and intermediate-term prediction of strong earthquakes for the Kamchatka region.

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“…1) с целью поиска гидрогеодинамических предвестников землетрясений с использованием измерительных комплексов Кедр ДМ-У (ООО Полином, г. Хабаровск), обеспечивающих синхронную регистрацию уровня воды и атмосферного давления с периодичностью опроса 5 мин. Действующая система сбора и обработки данных позволяет проводить наблюдения в режиме, близком к реальному времени, с точностью измерений вариаций уровня воды ±0.1 см и атмосферного давления ±0.1 гПа [Kopylova et al, 2017].…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

EFFECTS OF THE JANUARY 30, 2016, Mw=7.2 ZHUPANOVSKY EARTHQUAKE ON THE WATER LEVEL VARIATIONS IN WELLS YUZ-5 AND E-1 IN KAMCHATKA

Болдина¹,

Копылова²

2017

Geodin. tektonofiz.

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This paper describes the water level variations in wells YuZ-5 and E-1 in Kamchatka during the Zhupanovsky earthquake that occurred on January 30, 2016 (Mw=7.2, Н=180 km). The distances from the Zhupanovsky earthquake epicenter to wells E-1 and YuZ-5 were 70 and 80 km, respectively. In well YuZ-5, the water level raised by 9.4 cm during 45 minutes after the seismic wave arrival. This effect was caused by a combination of a co-seismic rise in the water level due to the volumetric compression of the water-bearing rocks during fracturing in the earthquake source and an impulse increase in the fluid pressure near the wellbore during the seismic shocks. We estimated the amplitude of the coseismic water level increase (h=7.3 cm) and the strain value resulting from the volumetric compression of the water-bearing rocks, which is consistent with the estimated value of the coseismic volumetric deformation in the area of the well at the depth of 500m: D1 =-4.510-8. This estimation was based on the model of the dislocation source in the homogeneous isotropic elastic half-space with the parameters of the Zhupanovsky earthquake focal mechanism. After the earthquake, the water level dropped for three months at an amplitude of about ~40 cm. In order to estimate the radius of the well sensitivity to the pressure drop source, we used the model of water level lowering that followed the pressure drop in the aquifer at a distance to the well as a result of the improved filtration properties of the water-bearing rocks after the seismic shocks. The estimated radius of the well sensitivity, R is 450 m. For 3.5 months before the Zhupanovsky earthquake, ~20 cm increase in the water level was observed, which is anomalous in comparison with the average seasonal variations of the water level, as shown by the long-term observations. In our opinion, such a rise in the water level occurred in the process of the earthquake preparation, and can thus be viewed as its precursor. In well E-1, a sequence of water level changes manifested a hydrogeodynamic precursor: the water level dropped at an increased rate for 21 days before the earthquake, and raised at an amplitude of 3.7 cm during one month after the earthquake. The hydrogeodynamic precursor detected in real time gave grounds for forecasting a highly probable strong earthquake at a distance of up to 350 km from wells E-1 within a month. This forecast was reported to the Kamchatka Branch of the Russian Expert Council (KB REC) on January 21, 2016. The Zhupanovsky earthquake occurred on January 30, 2016, and its magnitude, time and location correlated with the prediction. The case of this earthquake shows that the Kamchatka Branch of the Federal Research Center 'Geophysical Survey of RAS' has the system of water level observations and data processing, which is capable of diagnosing (close to real time and retrospectively) different types of hydrogeoseismic variations in the water level in wells in case of strong seismic events, and detecting the hydrogeodynamic precursors of strong earthquakes.

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Experience in registration of variations caused by strong earthquakes in the level and physicochemical parameters of ground waters in the piezometric wells: the case of Kamchatka

Cited by 13 publications

References 2 publications

Statistical Analysis of Precision Water Level Data from Observations in a Seismoactive Region: Case Study of the YuZ-5 Well, Kamchatka

Statistical Analysis of Precision Water Level Data from Observations in a Seismoactive Region: Case Study of the YuZ-5 Well, Kamchatka

Hydrogeoseismological Research in Kamchatka: 1977–2017

EFFECTS OF THE JANUARY 30, 2016, Mw=7.2 ZHUPANOVSKY EARTHQUAKE ON THE WATER LEVEL VARIATIONS IN WELLS YUZ-5 AND E-1 IN KAMCHATKA

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