Expected Macroeconomic Impacts of the Accession to WTO on Azerbaijan Economy: Empirical Analysis

Aliyev, Khatai

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2419175

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…All the three indicators from the non-oil sector here demonstrate a downward shift since 2009, although the seasonality may blur in the non-oil value added. It appears that post-crisis recovery shaped the development trend of the sector so as to be different from what was prevailing before the crisis (Aliyev 2014;Suleymanov and Aliyev 2015). All the variables in panel A share similar movements and display several major events associated with oil-market disruptions.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 98%

The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Non-Oil Economic Growth

2018

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Abstract:We investigate non-oil sector effects of fiscal policy in Azerbaijan over a long time period in which a recent low oil prices sample is incorporated. To obtain robust empirical findings, we use different test and estimation methods as well as address small-sample bias issues in the extended production function framework. Results show that fiscal policy has a statistically significant positive impact on the non-oil sector both in the long and short run. However, the size of the impact is small compared to the findings of earlier studies due to, we believe, the low oil-price environment and different specifications used. Azerbaijani policymakers should take measures to compensate for the declining share of oil revenues in government revenues. They may consider increasing tax rates, import and export fees, energy and other tariffs as rapid remedies to fill the budget but these measures might hurt economic development. Alternative and less harmful remedies would be optimizing government spending, strongly monitoring ongoing projects, and phasing out social and infrastructure projects, which make lower contributions to growth. Our research opens the way for further investigation of this topic for the oil exporting economies in the future.

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Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 98%

The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Non-Oil Economic Growth

2018

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“…A few scholars briefly describe the experience of the Republic of Armenia as a member of the WTO in dealing with specific aspects of economic growth. For example, Aliyev (2014) argued that despite the expected perceived effectiveness of WTO membership in tackling domestic monopolies, the Republic of Armenia failed to experience this positive externality from accession. Hayrapetyan and Hayrapetyan (2016) also showed that WTO membership did not yield significant positive results, as the state experienced a trade balance deficit almost 15 years after accession.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Effect of Joining the World Trade Organization on Trade Performance: A Study of CIS Countries

Tanaguzova,

Nanovsky,

Orazgaliyev

2023

Economies

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This research delves into the impact of World Trade Organization (WTO) membership on trade dynamics in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region, focusing on the potential augmentation or diversion of trade resulting from CIS countries’ WTO accession. The study context is grounded in the interplay between regionalism, represented by regional trade agreements and historical connections, and global integration facilitated by WTO membership. The study also scrutinizes the potentially complicating role of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) regional bloc, referencing the ‘Spaghetti Bowl’ phenomenon of overlapping trade agreements. The gravity model of trade serves as a conceptual foundation to understand the effects of WTO membership and regional trade agreements on trade costs. Empirical results suggest that WTO membership has not enhanced trade for the CIS. Instances of trade within the CIS region where there is only one WTO member have resulted in a positive trend, even though there is no robust evidence that it is due to WTO membership. The EAEU enhances trade and serves as a trading bloc within the region. This study highlights that while the WTO strives to foster trade liberalization and growth, its effects can be region-specific and complex, as demonstrated by the CIS region’s experience. The research also hints at the importance of intra-regional trade and unique regional factors as critical determinants of trade patterns, which can enhance broader trade expansion and economic development.

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Caspian region: a focus on Azerbaijan – oil, natural gas, environment and resource management

2021

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At In this paper, it was attempted to examine the oil, natural gas, environment and resource management with a focus on Azerbaijan with details on history, geography, political, social, and economic developments of Caspian zone. The developments realized by countries over time are important with regard to what course they will follow in the future. The study also attracts attention to the environmental and economic importance of Lake Hazar, which is important for the country. Like other Turkic Republics that have gained their independence, the main economic goal of Azerbaijan is to realize a strong economic structure that can stand on its own in order to achieve economic independence as well as political independence in order to coordinate natural and environmental advantages.

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Expected Macroeconomic Impacts of the Accession to WTO on Azerbaijan Economy: Empirical Analysis

Abstract: ABSTRACT

Cited by 4 publications

References 27 publications

The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Non-Oil Economic Growth

The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Non-Oil Economic Growth

Assessing the Effect of Joining the World Trade Organization on Trade Performance: A Study of CIS Countries

Caspian region: a focus on Azerbaijan – oil, natural gas, environment and resource management

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