Expected impacts of climate change on tree ferns distribution and diversity patterns in subtropical Atlantic Forest

Gasper, André Luís de; Grittz, Guilherme Salgado; Russi, Carlos Henrique; Schwartz, Carlos Eduardo; Rodrigues, Arthur Vinícius

doi:10.1016/j.pecon.2021.03.007

Cited by 11 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…The results align with outcomes from similar studies, including the work of [58], who investigated the impact of climate change tree distribution in subtropical climates. Additionally, [59] investigated the effects of climate change on urban parks and the potential of vegetation to improve the microclimate.…”

Section: Strength and Limitationssupporting

confidence: 87%

Mitigation of Climate Change Impact on Bioclimatic Conditions Using Different Green Space Scenarios: The Case of a Hospital in Gorgan Subtropical Climates

Borna,

Roshan,

Moghbel

et al. 2023

Forests

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Urban development and its climatic consequences have caused urban decision-makers to establish strategies to mitigate climate change. The implementation of different green spaces is one of the main strategies to reduce the environmental and climatic consequences of urbanization. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to reveal the effect of different green space scenarios on micro-bioclimatic conditions of a hospital located in Gorgan city, Golestan province. Therefore, in order to determine the position of the hospital building relative to Gorgan’s urban heat island (UHI), the location and changes in UHI intensity of Gorgan were determined as evidence of urban expansion. Since 27 July was determined as the hottest day in Gorgan city based on historical data analysis, the climatic conditions during 27 July 2021 were measured using an AR847 data logger installed in the hospital environment. Additionally, four different conditions, including actual environmental conditions of the hospital (actual conditions), along with the application of cypress trees (scenario A), plane trees (scenario B), and Buxus shrubs (scenario C), have been used to analyze the impact of different vegetation species on the bioclimatic conditions of 5 Azar Hospital during two time intervals, including observational periods (1970–2020) and the decade of the 2040s. Finally, spatiotemporal patterns of the predicted mean vote (PMV) thermal index were calculated for the observational period and during the 2040s using the ENVI-met micro-scale model. Results showed that the study site is in the UHI, which can affect the micro-bioclimatic conditions and the patient’s thermal perception. For all designed scenarios, results indicate that the average PMV index will increase by the 2040s. However, implementing different green space scenarios showed that the minimum and maximum values of PMV were found in scenario B, of 2.7. The actual PMV conditions of the studied site increased by 3.5. The scenario introduction of green spaces during the 2040s indicates that the average PMV at the hospital site will be decreased by 0.9 compared to the actual conditions. The study proves that appropriate green space strategies can reduce thermal loads occurring due to global climate change and improve the thermal conditions in the study area.

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Section: Strength and Limitationssupporting

confidence: 87%

Mitigation of Climate Change Impact on Bioclimatic Conditions Using Different Green Space Scenarios: The Case of a Hospital in Gorgan Subtropical Climates

Borna,

Roshan,

Moghbel

et al. 2023

Forests

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“…Thus, intra‐ and interspecific differential migration rates, in combination with other processes such as higher mortality of cold‐resistant species and intrusion of lowland species into montane areas (e.g. de Gasper et al ., 2021), may lead to the formation of new communities adapted to warmer regimes (Wright, Muller‐Landau & Schipper, 2009), i.e. thermophilisation (Duque et al ., 2015; Fadrique et al ., 2018).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of anthropogenic climate change on tropical montane forests: an appraisal of the evidence

et al. 2023

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In spite of their small global area and restricted distributions, tropical montane forests (TMFs) are biodiversity hotspots and important ecosystem services providers, but are also highly vulnerable to climate change. To protect and preserve these ecosystems better, it is crucial to inform the design and implementation of conservation policies with the best available scientific evidence, and to identify knowledge gaps and future research needs. We conducted a systematic review and an appraisal of evidence quality to assess the impacts of climate change on TMFs. We identified several skews and shortcomings. Experimental study designs with controls and long-term (≥10 years) data sets provide the most reliable evidence, but were rare and gave an incomplete understanding of climate change impacts on TMFs. Most studies were based on predictive modelling approaches, short-term (<10 years) and cross-sectional study designs. Although these methods provide moderate to circumstantial evidence, they can advance our understanding on climate change effects. Current evidence suggests that increasing temperatures and rising cloud levels have caused distributional shifts (mainly upslope) of montane biota, leading to alterations in biodiversity and ecological functions. Neotropical TMFs were the best studied, thus the knowledge derived there can serve as a proxy for climate change responses in under-studied regions elsewhere. Most studies focused on vascular plants, birds, amphibians and insects, with other taxonomic groups poorly represented. Most ecological studies were conducted at species or community levels, with a marked paucity of genetic studies, limiting understanding of the adaptive capacity of TMF biota. We thus highlight the long-term need to widen the methodological, thematic and geographical scope of studies on TMFs under climate change to address these uncertainties. In the short term, however, in-depth research in well-studied regions and advances in computer modelling approaches offer the most reliable sources of information for expeditious conservation action for these threatened forests.

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“…Ferns are strongly dependent on natural environmental conditions, and their species diversity changes are closely related to environmental conditions (Lwanga et al, 1998). They can respond to changes in environmental conditions with a significant indicative effect (Karst et al, 2005;Gasper et al, 2021). The prosperity of understory ferns may be related to their physiological characteristics.…”

Section: Species Composition and Flora Of Herbaceous In The Subtropic...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Species diversity pattern and its drivers of the understory herbaceous plants in a Chinese subtropical forest

et al. 2023

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Understory herbaceous plants are an important component of forest ecosystems, playing important roles in species diversity and forest dynamics in forests. However, the current understanding of the biodiversity of forest communities is mostly from woody plants, and knowledge of community structure and species diversity for understory herbaceous plants remains scarce. In a subtropical forest in China, we investigated understory vascular herbaceous diversity from 300 plots (5 × 5 m) in the main growing season. In this study, we analyzed the community structure and diversity pattern of the understory herbaceous community and linked the species diversity pattern to both abiotic and biotic environments. We found a rich diversity of understory herbaceous communities in this forest (81 species belonging to 55 genera), and floristic elements at the genus level were dominated by tropical elements, followed by temperate elements. The diversity pattern of the understory herbaceous showed a significant habitat preference, with the highest diversity in the lowland valleys and then followed by in middle slopes. In addition, herbaceous diversity was significantly affected by both abiotic factors (such as terrain convexity) and biotic factors (such as the diversity of surrounding woody plants). Our study indicated that species diversity of understory herbaceous showed a remarkable habitat preference, such as lowland valleys, and highlighted the importance of both abiotic and biotic environments in driving herbaceous diversity patterns in the subtropical forest understory.

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Expected impacts of climate change on tree ferns distribution and diversity patterns in subtropical Atlantic Forest

Cited by 11 publications

References 74 publications

Mitigation of Climate Change Impact on Bioclimatic Conditions Using Different Green Space Scenarios: The Case of a Hospital in Gorgan Subtropical Climates

Mitigation of Climate Change Impact on Bioclimatic Conditions Using Different Green Space Scenarios: The Case of a Hospital in Gorgan Subtropical Climates

Impacts of anthropogenic climate change on tropical montane forests: an appraisal of the evidence

Species diversity pattern and its drivers of the understory herbaceous plants in a Chinese subtropical forest

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