Expected Effects of Climate Change on Forest Disturbance Regimes in British Columbia

Abstract

Projections for forest disturbance and damage under a changing climate in British Columbia are summarized, with the objective of collating regionally specific expectations so that land managers can take pro-active steps to avoid or adapt to the changes expected. While some projections are based on extrapolations of recent multi-decadal trends, most are based on global climate models (GCMs) that must make assumptions about the range of CO2 emissions and the status of atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions over the next century. Regardless of emission scenarios, it is universally expected that British Columbia will experience warmer air temperatures, coupled with more precipitation in some regions and less in others. Forest fires are expected to be more frequent and more intense in the southern half of the province and in the Taiga Plains, but less important in other portions of the province. Forest insects and fungal pathogens are expected to more fully occupy the current range of their host tree species and expand ranges northward and to higher elevations along with their hosts. More frequent and detrimental pest outbreaks are expected in some regions when several years of favourable weather align. Wind damage, floods, and landslides can be expected to increase on terrain where they are already a risk factor. For many agents of tree mortality, expected changes in disturbance regime amount to an expansion or shifting of the seasonal window of activity, sometimes with different trends projected for different seasons and different regions of the province. The prediction of future forest disturbance regimes is in its infancy, requiring a much more concerted effort in compiling both empirical and simulated data, but managers may wish to adjust plans accordingly where there is largely a consensus among current and projected trends.

Natural Disturbance and Post-Disturbance Management Effects on Selected Watershed Values

“…Increased air temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns (i.e., timing, amount, intensity, and form) have the potential to alter both the availability (seasonality and quantity) and quality of freshwater (Pike et al 2010a). In addition, there is a high likelihood for increased frequency, severity, and areal extent of natural disturbances (Haughian et al 2012) as a consequence of climate change, which will 1…”

Reducing Vulnerabilities and Promoting Resilience of British Columbia’s Natural and Human Systems Through Adaptation of Post-disturbance Land Management Options

“…It consists of three main adaptation framework actions or pillars that are used to inform those decisions: 1) providing evidence/effects, 2) increasing adaptive capacity, and 3) addressing competing pressures. Because of the regional nature of expected shifts in natural disturbances (Haughian et al 2012), a more strategic approach is presented. It is hoped that by following this approach, actions can be customized to specific locations based on specific information.…”

“…This issue also includes an additional research report entitled "Expected Effects of Climate Change on Forest Disturbance Regimes in British Columbia" (Haughian et al 2012) that synthesizes the literature on the expected shifts in the frequency and severity of major natural disturbance events associated with a changing climate in BC. The goal of this research report is to point out important differences among the regions of BC in terms of their susceptibility to disturbance regime shifts; these expected trends and differences will, in turn, help to focus the application of the Decision Support Framework and assist decision makers in the selection of suitable management options.…”

An analysis of coastal temperate old forest residual carbon, structure and understory plant floristics after wildfire

“…Overarching all this is the increasing incidence of drought caused by anthropogenic climate 2 change which exacerbates the frequency and severity of events such as fire (Haughian et al 2012, Halofsky et al 2020.…”

“…There are remaining questions about OGMA patch size and issues with edge effects (Bezzola and Coxson 2020), about representation and protection of high productivity old growth (Price et al 2021), and managing old-growth forests in the uncertainty of fire regimes (Kopra and Feller 2007). This is especially true as the frequency and intensity of wildfires have been and are expected to continue to increase with climate change (Haughian et al 2012) with ramifications to forest resilience (Daniels et al 2017).…”