Expected climate change impacts on surface water bodies in Lithuania

Plunge, Svajunas; Gudas, Mindaugas; Povilaitis, Arvydas

doi:10.1016/j.ecohyd.2021.11.004

Cited by 16 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…However, our study results are in line with Plunge et al (2022) study where the SWAT model with 7 regional climate models was applied to study RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Plunge et al (2022) study forecasted the increase of the…”

supporting

confidence: 90%

Modeling Climate Change Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Nemunas River Watershed and Curonian Lagoon Ecosystem

Čerkasova,

Mėžinė,

Idzelytė

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Abstract. This study advances the understanding of climate projection uncertainties in the Nemunas River, Curonian Lagoon, and southeastern Baltic Sea continuum by analyzing a subset of climate models, focusing on a coupled ocean and drainage basin model. Four downscaled and bias-corrected high-resolution regional atmospheric climate models were used to set up the hydrological (SWAT) and hydrodynamic (SHYFEM) modeling system. This study investigates the variability and trends in environmental parameters such as water fluxes, timing, nutrient load, water temperature, ice cover, and saltwater intrusions under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The analysis highlights the variability among model results underscoring the inherent uncertainties in forecasting climatic impacts, hence highlighting the necessity of using multi-model ensembles to improve the accuracy of climate change impact assessments. Additionally, modeling results were used to evaluate the possible environmental impact due to climate change through the analysis of the cold water fish species reproduction season. We analyze the duration of cold periods (<1.5 °C) as a thermal window for burbot spawning, calculated assuming different climate forcing scenarios and models. The analysis indicated coherent shrinking of the cold period and presence of the changepoints during historical and different periods in the future, however, not all trends reach statistical significance, and due to high variability within the projections, they are less reliable. This means there is a considerable amount of uncertainty in these projections, highlighting the difficulty in making reliable climate change impact assessments.

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supporting

confidence: 90%

Modeling Climate Change Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Nemunas River Watershed and Curonian Lagoon Ecosystem

Čerkasova,

Mėžinė,

Idzelytė

et al. 2024

Preprint

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“…The model was calibrated/validated using a total of about 62 hydrological stations and 130 stations for water quality data. However, extensive calibration/validation was carried out on representative stations representing 14 regions according to hydrological and pollution generating conditions (Plunge et al, 2022b). Results show that the RMS performs well compared to the observation data.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It has also been applied in multiple scientific works. One study (Plunge et al, 2022b) has evaluated consequences of climate change on surface water bodies in Lithuania. Another one, utilizing the RMS, investigated how the effectiveness of BMPs changes with the advancement of climate warming (Plunge et al, 2022a).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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From a test case to a trusted tool: Lithuania’s evolving SWAT system for water and agricultural management

Plunge,

Piniewski

2024

srees

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Lithuania’s development of the river modelling system (RMS) exemplifies an institutional development and application of integrated modelling for water and agricultural management. What started as a test case, continued to develop focusing on environmental compliance with the EU regulations. Currently, the RMS is a part of decision-making. By incorporating the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model and comprehensive data sources, the system facilitates in-depth analysis and policy formulation. Applications in water management plans, pollution assessments, and climate change studies demonstrate the reliability of RMS. Despite data quality and skill retention challenges, institutional commitment and collaboration ensure the RMS’s persistence. This experience emphasizes the value of sustained investment in integrated modelling systems for achieving sustainable environmental governance and signifies Lithuania’s shift towards data driven green transition practices.

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“…Increasing air temperatures reduced the cold period duration, when frost forms on the soil surface, and the decomposition of plant residues and infiltration of precipitation do not take place. Climate change models for various scenarios (RCP4.5 scenario and RCP8.5 scenario) predict that an increase in air temperature will accelerate mineralisation processes in soil, which will substantially increase nutrient leaching [26]. In addition to temperature, precipitation also has a significant effect on the leaching of chemical elements.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Organic Carbon, Nitrogen Accumulation and Nitrogen Leaching as Affected by Legume Crop Residues on Sandy Loam in the Eastern Baltic Region

Tripolskaja

Kazlauskaite-Jadzevice

Razukas

2023

Plants

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Legumes have a wide range of positive effects on soil properties, including nitrogen and carbon storage, soil structure and the phytosanitary condition of crops. From an agronomic point of view, legumes are most valued for their ability to take up atmospheric nitrogen in symbiosis with nitrogen-fixing bacteria. The aim of this research was to determine the effect of legume residues (peas, fodder beans, narrow-leaved lupins) on the N (Ntotal) and organic carbon (Corg) accumulation in soil and N leaching under temperate climate conditions. The experiment was carried out in lysimetric equipment in 2016–2023. The effect of legumes on Corg and Ntotal accumulation in soil and N leaching were studied in a Fabaceae–Cereals sequence. Three species of legumes—peas, fodder beans and narrow-leaved lupines—were tested; spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) was grown as a control treatment. The lysimeter surface area was 1.75 m2 and the experimental soil layer was 0.60 m (sand loam Haplic Luvisol). It was found that after harvesting, more residues were incorporated into the soil with lupines (p < 0.05), which, compared to pea and bean residues, increased Ntotal and Corg concentrations in the soil. There was a strong correlation (r = 0.95) between the Ntotal concentration in the soil and the N amount incorporated with residues. Mineral N released during residue decomposition was leached from the humic horizon under conditions of excess moisture in the autumn–winter period and increased the nitrate concentration in the lysimeter water. The increase in concentration was recorded within 5 to 6 months after the application of the residues. As a result, the N leaching losses increased on average by 24.7–33.2% (p < 0.05) during the year of legume cultivation. In the following year, after legume residue incorporation, the effect of residues on nitrate concentration and N leaching decreased and did not differ significantly from that of barley residues.

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Expected climate change impacts on surface water bodies in Lithuania

Cited by 16 publications

References 41 publications

Modeling Climate Change Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Nemunas River Watershed and Curonian Lagoon Ecosystem

Modeling Climate Change Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Nemunas River Watershed and Curonian Lagoon Ecosystem

From a test case to a trusted tool: Lithuania’s evolving SWAT system for water and agricultural management

Organic Carbon, Nitrogen Accumulation and Nitrogen Leaching as Affected by Legume Crop Residues on Sandy Loam in the Eastern Baltic Region

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