Expected changes in agroclimatic conditions in Central Europe

Abstract

During the past few decades, the basic assumption of agroclimatic zoning, i.e., that agroclimatic conditions remain relatively stable, has been shattered by ongoing climate change. The first aim of this study was to develop a tool that would allow for effective analysis of various agroclimatic indicators and their dynamics under climate change conditions for a particular region. The results of this effort were summarized in the AgriClim software package, which provides users with a wide range of parameters essential for the evaluation of climate-related stress factors in agricultural crop production. The software was then tested over an area of 114,000 km 2 in Central Europe. We have found that by 2020, the combination of increased air temperature and changes in the amount and distribution of precipitation will lead to a prolonged growing season and significant shifts in the agroclimatic zones in Central Europe; in particular, the areas that are currently most productive will be reduced and replaced by warmer but drier conditions in the same time the higher elevations will most likely experience improvement in their agroclimatic conditions. This positive effect might be short-lived, as by 2050, even these areas might experience much drier conditions than observed currently. Both the rate and the scale of the shift are amazing as by 2020 (assuming upper range of the climate change projections) only 20-38% of agriculture land in the evaluated 262 Climatic Change (2011) 108:261-289 region will remain in the same agroclimatic and by 2050 it might be less than 2%. On the other hand farmers will be able to take advantage of an earlier start to the growing season, at least in the lowland areas, as the proportion of days suitable for sowing increases. As all of these changes might occur within less than four decades, these issues could pose serious adaptation challenges for farmers and governmental policies. The presented results also suggest that the rate of change might be so rapid that the concept of static agroclimatic zoning itself might lose relevance due to perpetual change.

Modelling regional variability of irrigation requirements due to climate change in Northern Germany

“…Trnka et al (2011) reported that 98% of agricultural land within a Central European region could shift towards a new agro-climatic class by 2050 -assuming worst case scenario from a down-scaled global climate change model.…”

Kapitel 2: Land- und Forstwirtschaft, Wasser, Ökosysteme und Biodiversität

“…Band 2, Kapitel 3), mit einer Zunahme des Bewässerungsbedarfes zur Erhaltung des heutigen Ertragsniveaus (Ertragssicherung) zu rechnen ist (vgl. Band 2, Kapitel 2, Kromp-Kolb et al, 2007;Thaler et al, 2012;Trnka et al, 2011;WPDA, 2011). Die Zunahmen im relativen Wasserbedarf für die Hauptackerbaugebiete im Osten Österreichs liegen unter diesen Klimaverände-rungen für Getreide im Mittel bei ca.…”

Nitrogen Concentrations and Nitrogen Yields of Above-Ground Dry Matter of Chickpea during Crop Growth Compared to Pea, Barley and Oat in Central Europ

“…The changes in agroclimatic conditions in Central Europe are expected to go along with an increase in air temperature, changes in the amount and distribution of precipitation, and prolonged growing seasons. This may lead to a lower productivity of rainfed spring crops due to a higher risk of drought (Trnka et al, 2011). Promising opportunities may arise under these conditions for adopting crops with a pronounced warm-season growth habit such as chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) in comparatively cool, northern latitude areas (Gan et al, 2009).…”