Expectation Setting and Retrospective Voting

Abstract

That citizens engage in retrospective voting is widely established in the literature. But to what extent is retrospection affected by the expectations that leaders set in advance? We develop a theoretical framework of how expectation setting affects voters' retrospective evaluations of incumbent performance. To test the theory, we conduct a series of between-subjects experiments in which we independently manipulate both expectation setting and the eventual outcome. In domains where politicians have practical authority, or direct influence over outcomes, setting high expectations incurs a cost in public support if the projected outcome is not attained. The same is true in domains where politicians have theoretical authority, or limited influence, but where expectation setting sends a signal about the leader's judgment. However, in domains where politicians have neither practical nor theoretical authority, setting high expectations is unambiguously beneficial, implying that optimism is valued by voters as a personality disposition.

The politics of leadership capital in compound democracies: inferences from the German case

“…As Bennister, 't Hart and Worthy note, alongside a leader's perceived authenticity and effectiveness, the match or mismatch between promise and performance in terms of public policy is at the very core of the reputational dimension of leadership capital. This corresponds with recent research on expectation setting by political leaders and patterns of retrospective voting which suggests that 'setting high expectations incurs a cost in public support if the projected outcome is not attained', at least 'in domains in which voters attribute to the leader either practical or theoretical authority' (Malhotra and Margalit, 2014: 1000, 1015. 1 Unlike several other recent concepts of political leadership, the leadership capital concept is firmly based on the experience of real world politics: It starts from the important observation that political leadership is not only invariably highly dynamic and contingent but that there is, more specifically, a 'natural trajectory' of leadership capital depreciation over time.…”

Credit or debit? The effect of issue ownership on retrospective economic voting

“…A surprisingly understudied question within the retrospective voting literature is how voters' expectations condition performance evaluations (Malhotra and Margalit 2014;Neundorf and Adams 2016). While it is clear that the re-election prospects of incumbents are harmed by bad outcomes in the past and, albeit to a lesser extent, sustained by good outcomes (Mueller 1970;Paldam 1997, 2002), it is still unclear to what extent retrospection is affected by the expectations voters have in advance.…”

“…Recent research has made a significant advancement in exploring the micro foundations of retrospective voting behavior (e.g., de Vries and Giger 2014;Duch et al 2000;Huber et al 2012;Neundorf and Adams 2016;Singer 2011). Yet, despite the extensive literature on retrospective voting, the question of how voters' expectations condition performance evaluations remains surprisingly understudied (Malhotra and Margalit 2014). Is retrospective voting affected by the expectations set in advance by the parties?…”

Bailout or bust? Government evaluations in the wake of a bailout

“…Specifically, a banking crisis is ideal to test whether voters credit the government for a strong policy response or punish the government unconditionally because of a worsened economy. Previous research finds that an economic crisis is the best case where economic perceptions will exogenously influence government support (Chzhen et al 2014), and voters have clear expectations that the government should react by proposing and enacting alleviating policies (Egan 2014;Malhotra and Margalit 2014). Thus, when the government provides a policy response in the form of a government bailout, we are able to examine the extent to which voters are able and willing to credit the government for a response to the crisis.…”