Expanded and Recently Increased Glacier Surging in the Karakoram

Copland, Luke; Sylvestre, Tyler; Bishop, Michael P.; Shroder, John F.; Seong, Yeong Bae; Owen, Lewis A.; Bush, Andrew B. G.; Kamp, Ulrich

doi:10.1657/1938-4246-43.4.503

Cited by 214 publications

(245 citation statements)

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“…This may be a result of the location, which is closer to Issyk-Kul Basin, where moist air masses originating from the large lake penetrate through the Terskey Alatau Range (Dikikh et al 1991). The advancing and surging of glaciers has been described for the Karakorum (Copland et al 2011) and the Pamir (Kotlyakov et al 2008), as well as some Tien Shan ranges (Dolgushin and Osipova 1975, Narama et al 2010, Pieczonka et al 2013; and is now reported for the first time for the 'SJRB'. Surprisingly, the largest glacier, No.…”

Section: Glacier Changesmentioning

confidence: 86%

Glacier characteristics and changes in the Sary-Jaz River Basin (Central Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan) – 1990–2010

Osmonov

Bolch

Chen

et al. 2013

Remote Sensing Letters

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The water discharge from the heavily glacierized Sary-Jaz River Basin (Eastern Kyrgyzstan) is of high importance for the very arid Tarim Basin located in Xinjiang (north-western China). We investigated glacier changes in the entire Sary-Jaz River Basin, which covers a large part of the Central Tien Shan, for the period from 1990 to 2010 based on Landsat 'TM'/'ETM+'data. We found 1310 glaciers (>0.1 km²), which covered 2055 ± 41.1 km² ( 18% of the entire basin) in 1990. The glaciers shrank by 77.1 ± 57.1 km² (3.7 ± 2.7%) until 2010. This is considerably lower than in most other ranges of the Tien Shan. The lowest insignificant area loss (−1.5 ± 2.7%) was found in the eastern part of the basin where the largest glaciers and highest peaks are situated. Debris-covered glaciers shrank significantly less than clean-ice glaciers of comparable size. We also identified a few advancing glaciers which show surge characteristics. Climate data from the Tien Shan weather station (3614 m asl.) close to the study region showed no significant long-term trend. Remote Sensing Letters, 2013 Vol. 4, No. 8, 725-734, http The water discharge from the heavily glacierized Sary-Jaz River Basin (Eastern Kyrgyzstan) is of high importance for the very arid Tarim Basin located in Xinjiang (north-western China). We investigated glacier changes in the entire Sary-Jaz River Basin, which covers a large part of the Central Tien Shan, for the period from 1990 to 2010 based on Landsat 'TM'/'ETM+'data. We found 1310 glaciers (>0.1 km 2 ), which covered 2055 ± 41.1 km 2 (∼18% of the entire basin) in 1990. The glaciers shrank by 77.1 ± 57.1 km 2 (3.7 ± 2.7%) until 2010. This is considerably lower than in most other ranges of the Tien Shan. The lowest insignificant area loss (−1.5 ± 2.7%) was found in the eastern part of the basin where the largest glaciers and highest peaks are situated. Debris-covered glaciers shrank significantly less than clean-ice glaciers of comparable size. We also identified a few advancing glaciers which show surge characteristics. Climate data from the Tien Shan weather station (3614 m asl.) close to the study region showed no significant long-term trend.

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Section: Glacier Changesmentioning

confidence: 86%

Glacier characteristics and changes in the Sary-Jaz River Basin (Central Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan) – 1990–2010

Osmonov

Bolch

Chen

et al. 2013

Remote Sensing Letters

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“…This glacial growth appears to be driven "by a quirk of the atmospheric general circulation that is not understood"; "more snow is being delivered to the mountain range at present, and less heat" (Cogley, 2012). Gardelle et al (2012) have provided strong evidence for the existence of an increasing ice mass balance in the Karakoram region, and Copland et al (2011) stress that contrary to what is often claimed about many of Earth's mountain glaciers, "it is evident that glacier surging is more extensive than previously reported in the Karakoram and that the number of glacier surges has increased recently," driven by positive mass balances.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…• Copland et al (2011) used a combination of previously published literature and repeat satellite imagery to catalog ice behavior in the Karakoram since 1961. They found "there has been a marked increase in the recent occurrence of glacier surging in the Karakoram" associated with "a significant increase in winter, summer, and annual precipitation in the Karakoram over the period ."…”

Section: Other Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observations: Cryosphere

2014

Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis

142

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“…The glacier mass balance budget in the Karakoram positively affected the 2003-08 specific mass balance for the entire HKH region, which was estimated by Kääb et al (2012) into 20.21 6 0.05 m yr 21 of water equivalent. In particular, some studies discuss the expansion and thickening of the largest glaciers, mainly in the central Karakoram, since the 1990s, accompanied by a nonnegligible number of rapid glacier advances (i.e., surge-type phenomena; see, e.g., Diolaiuti et al 2003;Hewitt 2005;Barrand and Murray 2006;Mayer et al 2011;Copland et al 2011;Minora et al 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Hydrological Regimes in the Upper Indus Basin: A Case Study from a High-Altitude Glacierized Catchment

Soncini

Bocchiola

Confortola

et al. 2015

Journal of Hydrometeorology

100

124

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The mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Himalayas (HKH) are considered Earth's ''third pole,'' and water from there plays an essential role for downstream populations. The dynamics of glaciers in Karakoram are complex, and in recent decades the area has experienced unchanged ice cover, despite rapid decline elsewhere in the world (the Karakoram anomaly). Assessment of future water resources and hydrological variability under climate change in this area is greatly needed, but the hydrology of these high-altitude catchments is still poorly studied and little understood. This study focuses on a particular watershed, the Shigar River with the control section at Shigar (about 7000 km 2 ), nested within the upper Indus basin and fed by seasonal melt from two major glaciers (Baltoro and Biafo). Hydrological, meteorological, and glaciological data gathered during 3 years of field campaigns (2011-13) are used to set up a hydrological model, providing a depiction of instream flows, snowmelt, and ice cover thickness. The model is used to assess changes of the hydrological cycle until 2100, via climate projections provided by three state-of-the-art global climate models used in the recent IPCC Fifth Assessment Report under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Under all RCPs, future flows are predicted to increase until midcentury and then to decrease, but remaining mostly higher than control run values. Snowmelt is projected to occur earlier, while the ice melt component is expected to increase, with ice thinning considerably and even disappearing below 4000 m MSL until 2100.

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Expanded and Recently Increased Glacier Surging in the Karakoram

Abstract: BioOne Complete (complete.BioOne.org) is a full-text database of 200 subscribed and open-access titles in the biological, ecological, and environmental sciences published by nonprofit societies, associations, museums, institutions, and presses.

Cited by 214 publications

References 50 publications

Glacier characteristics and changes in the Sary-Jaz River Basin (Central Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan) – 1990–2010

Glacier characteristics and changes in the Sary-Jaz River Basin (Central Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan) – 1990–2010

Observations: Cryosphere

Future Hydrological Regimes in the Upper Indus Basin: A Case Study from a High-Altitude Glacierized Catchment

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