Exiting the COVID-19 pandemic: after-shock risks and avoidance of disruption tails in supply chains

Abstract

Entering the COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on supply chains. Reacting to the pandemic and adaptation in the “new normal” have been challenging tasks. Exiting the pandemic can lead to some after-shock effects such as “disruption tails.” While the research community has undertaken considerable efforts to predict the pandemic’s impacts and examine supply chain adaptive behaviors during the pandemic, little is known about supply chain management in the course of pandemic elimination and post-disruption recovery. If capacity and inventory management are unaware of the after-shock risks, this can result in highly destabilized production–inventory dynamics and decreased performance in the post-disruption period causing product deficits in the markets and high inventory costs in the supply chains. In this paper, we use a discrete-event simulation model to investigate some exit strategies for a supply chain in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our model can inform managers about the existence and risk of disruption tails in their supply chains and guide the selection of post-pandemic recovery strategies. Our results show that supply chains with postponed demand and shutdown capacity during the COVID-19 pandemic are particularly prone to disruption tails. We then developed and examined two strategies to avoid these disruption tails. First, we observed a conjunction of recovery and supply chain coordination which mitigates the impact of disruption tails by demand smoothing over time in the post-disruption period. Second, we found a gradual capacity ramp-up prior to expected peaks of postponed demand to be an effective strategy for disruption tail control.

A structured literature review on the interplay between emerging technologies and COVID-19 – insights and directions to operations fields

“…While the literature exploring COVID-19 in different operations, management, and information systems perspectives have made significant progress (Chesbrough, 2020 ; Dwivedi et al, 2020 ; Y. Li et al, 2020 ; Manero et al, 2020 ; Queiroz, Ivanov et al, 2020 ; Remko, 2020 ; Sarkis, 2020 ; Sodhi et al, 2021 ; Ivanov, 2020a , b ), there is still a huge gap when we consider a systemization about the role of emerging technologies to fight against this pandemic outbreak, the lessons, insights, and directions for other future emergency situations (Choi, 2021 ; Ivanov, 2021 ).…”

How is COVID-19 altering the manufacturing landscape? A literature review of imminent challenges and management interventions

“…For instance, the social capital theory is used to study the relationship between digitalization, social capital, and supply chain performance (Kim & Lee, 2021 ). Additionally, with the pandemic presenting challenges around timely deployment of resilient assets, studies like Belhadi et al ( 2021 ) and Ivanov ( 2021a , 2021b ) employ the supply chain resilience theory to evaluate supply chain strategies. There is also evidence of the theory of constructal law being used to understand the makeup of supply chains and management-level decisions in the context of pandemic-related events (Handfield et al, 2020 ).…”

“…This review, however, targets the challenges of COVID-19, alongside corresponding interventions that are not limited to supply chain challenges but are more inclusive of overarching challenges hindering the survival of manufacturing businesses. Secondly, significant research is available on COVID-19 (Choi, 2021 ; Gupta et al, 2021 ; Khalilpourazari & Doulabi, 2021 ) in a supply chain context (Ivanov & Dolgui, 2020 ; Ivanov, 2021a ), humanitarian logistics in an epidemic context (Kumar et al, 2021 ; Wamba, 2020 ), and in other contexts (Adamovic, 2022 ; Chipidza, 2021 ; Dwivedi et al, 2020 ; Islam et al, 2022 ; Papadopoulos et al, 2020 ; Shirish et al, 2021 ; Trkman et al, 2021 ). However, an accumulative understanding of such a widespread event in manufacturing is rather limited (Hilmola et al, 2020 ; Paul & Chowdhury, 2020b ; Queiroz et al, 2020 ).…”

Covıd-19 Krizinin Petrol Fiyatları Üzerine Etkisi

“…Salgının birinci yılının sonunda aşılamanın başlamasıyla beraber krizden çıkış süreci üzerine çalışmalar yapılmıştır (de la Fuente-Mella, Rubilar, Chahuán-Jiménez ve Leiva, 2021; Ivanov, 2021;Kubota, 2021). 2019'un sonunda başlayıp 2021'in sonuna kadar geçen 2 yıllık süreçte salgının maliyetleri ortaya çıkmaya başlamıştır.…”