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The disconnect between the exchange rate and its macroeconomic fundamentals has been extensively discussed in the literature. It nonetheless continues to pose theoretical and empirical challenges in the literature. This study examines the relationship between the exchange rate and its fundamentals. This study used the monetary model of exchange rate determination developed in the 1970s. The study used the TAR to estimate the exchange change rate behaviour in response to variations in monetary variables. We found that the exchange rates respond to the interest rate differential, consistent with the predictions of the monetary model of exchange rate determination. Furthermore, in all the regimes, the sizes of coefficients are different, which shows that the exchange rate behaviour is non-linear (asymmetric). While the impact of the interest rate differential in regime 1 and 2 leads to exchange rates appreciating although in regime 2 the results are insignificant, this occurs when the exchange rates fluctuate below 0.87 percentage points. In regime 3, on average, a marginal increase in interest rate deferential leads to an exchange rate depreciation. In some instances, the exchange rates respond to the monetary variables’ changes in line with the predictions of the monetary theory of exchange rate determination. An increase in interest rates in some instances leads to an improvement in the value of the exchange rate. However, the conditions are not constant—they vary depending on the state of exchange rate fluctuation.
The disconnect between the exchange rate and its macroeconomic fundamentals has been extensively discussed in the literature. It nonetheless continues to pose theoretical and empirical challenges in the literature. This study examines the relationship between the exchange rate and its fundamentals. This study used the monetary model of exchange rate determination developed in the 1970s. The study used the TAR to estimate the exchange change rate behaviour in response to variations in monetary variables. We found that the exchange rates respond to the interest rate differential, consistent with the predictions of the monetary model of exchange rate determination. Furthermore, in all the regimes, the sizes of coefficients are different, which shows that the exchange rate behaviour is non-linear (asymmetric). While the impact of the interest rate differential in regime 1 and 2 leads to exchange rates appreciating although in regime 2 the results are insignificant, this occurs when the exchange rates fluctuate below 0.87 percentage points. In regime 3, on average, a marginal increase in interest rate deferential leads to an exchange rate depreciation. In some instances, the exchange rates respond to the monetary variables’ changes in line with the predictions of the monetary theory of exchange rate determination. An increase in interest rates in some instances leads to an improvement in the value of the exchange rate. However, the conditions are not constant—they vary depending on the state of exchange rate fluctuation.
<p>In recent years, monetary authorities have used unconventional monetary policy practices to stabilize economies. As a result, economic policy uncertainties have increased; subsequently, this has created fragilities in financial markets and exposed investors to greater levels of investment risk. However, recent literature suggests that volatility dynamics differ across industries, with some industries having hedging capabilities. On this basis, this study's objective is to explore the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the volatility of different industries in South Africa. The GARCH-MIDAS approach was employed to achieve this objective, and nine industry-specific indices were evaluated from 3 January 2000 to 29 December 2023. The industry-specific analysis revealed that EPU has a negative relationship with the volatility in the following four industries: consumer discretionary, financials, health care, and technology. However, a positive relationship was found for the basic materials industry, while no significant effect was reported for consumer staples, energy, industrials, and telecommunications. Overall, these findings indicate that the EPU effects are asymmetric across industries and, therefore, it follows that the impact of EPU should be accounted for when making asset allocation choices.</p>
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