Exchange rate dynamics, balance sheet effects, and capital flows. A Minskyan model of emerging market boom-bust cycles

Abstract

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Análisis de inversión y ganancias cambiarias en empresasmexicanas mediante regresión cuantílica: 1990-2018

“…La decisión de invertir en activos fijos ante la variación cambiaria depende de factores como la exposición del sector productivo frente al sector externo [Mesa y Salguero (1998)], la marcha económica [Mishkin (2014)], las políticas cambiarias [Bonono y Terra (2001)] y su efecto en las economías [Tobal (2014[Tobal ( , 2013[Tobal ( y 2018], la intervención de los organismos bancarios para evaluar la exposición de las empresas a las fluctuaciones cambiarias [Kuruc, Tissot y Turner (2016)] y los factores endógenos de los mercados financieros [Bernanke, Gertler y Gilchrist (1998)], el sector al que pertenece la empresa [Doms y Dunne (1998)] y los ciclos económicos [Kohler (2019)].…”

“…Situación que afecta los fondos destinados al rubro de inversiones productivas. Kohler (2019) proporciona un enfoque de los ciclos en las economías emergentes con características estructuralistas, en donde incorpora los tipos de cambio procíclicos, la balanza comercial anticíclica y los niveles significativos de deuda extranjera corporativa. Constata que la apreciación de la moneda local hace que los balances con deuda en moneda extranjera sean más sólidos, y los efectos contractivos en el balance general se reflejan cuando las empresas nacionales enfrentan una caída en su patrimonio neto nominal.…”

Testing fundamentalist–momentum trader financial cycles: An empirical analysis via the Kalman filter

“…Since the 1980s, followers of the post‐Keynesian school of economics have developed the economic ideas of Hyman Minsky in formal mathematical models. However, despite the great number of theoretical studies (see, e.g., Charles, 2008; Foley, 2003; Kohler, 2019; Nishi, 2012; Ryoo, 2010, 2012, 2013; Taylor & O’Connell, 1985; Vercelli, 2000 among others), there are few empirical studies on the financial instability hypothesis. Section 2.1 revisits the theoretical and empirical papers on Minsky’s theory.…”

“…Borio (2014) criticizes that the New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium paradigm has regarded finance as a veil and consequently it has interpreted financial crises as exogenous shocks. By contrast, since the global financial crisis, models that allow for financial instability and cycles have gained prominence (Jordà et al, 2016; Kohler, 2019; Lavoie & Daigle, 2010; Mian et al, 2017; Nishi, 2012; Nikolaidi, 2014; Stockhammer, Calvert Jump, et al, 2019). They build on Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis (Minsky, 1985) and behavioral finance (Shiller, 2003), which regard financial cycles and market inefficiency as the outcome of endogenous forces.…”

Exchange rate and volatility: A bibliometric review

“…Transcendent events over time have accentuated the ERV in the world, such as the breaking of the Bretton-Woods agreement (Asteriou, Masatci, & Pilbeam, 2016;Ouyang, Rajan, & Li, 2016) and the global financial crises (Kholer, 2019;Pinho, Franco, & Silva, 2016;Stiglitz, 2010). Table 1 shows the volatility in the currencies of some countries and the European Union with the U.S. dollar.…”