Excess semiannual variation in historical temperature records

Abstract

The annual temperature cycle of the Earth closely follows the annual cycle of solar flux. At temperate latitudes, both driving and response cycles are well described by a strong annual sinusoidal component and a nonvanishing semiannual component. A new analysis of historical weather station records from the United States determines persistent annual and semiannual variation with high precision. Historical annual temperature ranges are consistent with prior studies. Semiannual temperature cycles are much stronger than expected based on the semiannual solar driving. Instead, these cycles were consistent with multiplicative effects of two annual cycles. Our methods provide a quantitative window into the climate's nonlinear response to solar driving, which is of potential value in testing climate models.