Excess of deaths during COVID-19 pandemic in Mato Grosso, Brazil

Abstract

This article aims to estimate the excess of deaths in the years 2020 and 2021 in Mato Grosso state, in the state capital and in the countryside, according to gender and age group. Data was extracted from DATASUS/Ministry of Health website for the period from 2015 to 2020 and from the website of the State Department of Health - Data Warehouse System (DW) for 2021. Non-fetal deaths by natural causes of residents in Mato Grosso were analyzed and the analyses were broken down into countryside and state capital (Cuiabá). The variables selected were age group, gender, month of occurrence, and underlying cause of death. Excess mortality was calculated using generalized additive quasi-Poisson model adjustments with correction for overdispersion. A 30% excess of deaths was identified in 2020, with the state capital recording the highest estimate, in older age groups, and between the months of July and September. In 2021, the expected number of deaths was 57% higher, with the double in the younger age groups in the countryside. The study showed different demographic profiles of excess deaths in the years 2020 and 2021 during COVID-19 pandemic and distinct patterns between countryside and state capital, suggesting inequalities that may have caused impact on different risks.