Excess Deaths associated with the COVID-19 Pandemic in Ukraine in 2020

Mehta, Neil K.; Honchar, Ihor; Doroshenko, Olena; Brovenchko, Igor; Pak, Khrystyna; Danyuk, Maria; Polikarchuk, Pavlov

doi:10.1101/2021.09.28.21264266

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 11 publications

(14 reference statements)

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“…The estimated excess mortality was 10, 525 for the entire year. Such findings 90,91 are comparable with the results presented in this manuscript for the year 2020. In particular, the first estimate is comparable to estimates from nonparametric (32,569) and parametric ARIMA (31,123) and ARIMA & 65+ (35,726) models.…”

Section: Analysis Limitationssupporting

confidence: 92%

“…The other available Ukrainian manuscripts focused on COVID-19-specific incidence, mortality and genetics 9,24,[84][85][86] , vaccinations 31 , environmental factors 87 and other COVID-19 aspects 22,88,89 . The only discovered works about the excess mortality in Ukraine were two works for the year 2020 90,91 . In the first work 90 (written in English) the authors used a linear regression modeling framework without temporal dependence and the monthly index as a predictor.…”

Section: Analysis Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The only discovered works about the excess mortality in Ukraine were two works for the year 2020 90,91 . In the first work 90 (written in English) the authors used a linear regression modeling framework without temporal dependence and the monthly index as a predictor. The estimated excess mortality was 38, 095 for the entire year.…”

Section: Analysis Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Excess mortality in Ukraine during the course of COVID-19 pandemic in 2020–2021

Shishkin

Lhewa

Yang

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

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In this work, the COVID-19 pandemic burden in Ukraine is investigated retrospectively using the excess mortality measures during 2020–2021. In particular, the epidemic impact on the Ukrainian population is studied via the standardized both all-cause and cause-specific mortality scores before and during the epidemic. The excess mortality counts during the pandemic were predicted based on historic data using parametric and nonparametric modeling and then compared with the actual reported counts to quantify the excess. The corresponding standardized mortality P-score metrics were also compared with the neighboring countries. In summary, there were three “waves” of excess all-cause mortality in Ukraine in December 2020, April 2021 and November 2021 with excess of 32%, 43% and 83% above the expected mortality. Each new “wave” of the all-cause mortality was higher than the previous one and the mortality “peaks” corresponded in time to three “waves” of lab-confirmed COVID-19 mortality. The lab-confirmed COVID-19 mortality constituted 9% to 24% of the all-cause mortality during those three peak months. Overall, the mortality trends in Ukraine over time were similar to neighboring countries where vaccination coverage was similar to that in Ukraine. For cause-specific mortality, the excess observed was due to pneumonia as well as circulatory system disease categories that peaked at the same times as the all-cause and lab-confirmed COVID-19 mortality, which was expected. The pneumonias as well as circulatory system disease categories constituted the majority of all cases during those peak times. The seasonality in mortality due to the infectious and parasitic disease category became less pronounced during the pandemic. While the reported numbers were always relatively low, alcohol-related mortality also declined during the pandemic.

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Section: Analysis Limitationssupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Analysis Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Excess mortality in Ukraine during the course of COVID-19 pandemic in 2020–2021

Shishkin

Lhewa

Yang

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

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“…Długosz i Kryvachuk (2020), badając polskich i ukraińskich studentów, stwierdzili, że wysoki poziom neurotyczności w związku z pandemią COVID-19 wystąpił wśród 61% polskich studentów, przy 47% wśród ukraińskich . Biorąc pod uwagę bardzo małą liczbę zrealizowanych (jak na warunki europejskie) w Ukrainie testów, a także relatywnie niski poziom ukraińskiej służby zdrowia (Piechowska, 2020) oraz względnie wysoką umieralność z powodu COVID-19 (Mehta i in ., 2021) odczuwanie niskiego stresu przez mieszkańców Lwowa względem Trójmiasta i Kielc budzi zdziwienie . Koresponduje to jednak z ukraińskimi badaniami, w których wskazywano na występowanie wprawdzie istotnego, lecz umiarkowanie wysokiego poziomu stresu wywołanego przez pandemię COVID-19 (por .…”

Section: Rezultaty I Dyskusjaunclassified

Samoocena poziomu stresu mieszkańców Trójmiasta, Kielc i Lwowa podczas pandemii COVID-19

Michalski,

Brosz,

Kiniorska

et al. 2023

Czasopismo Geograficzne

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The aim of the study is to determine the stress level among the adult residents of Tri-City (Gdańsk, Gdynia, Sopot), Kielce and Lviv. The study was conducted in January and February 2022. Use was made of a short questionnaire of 25 closed questions, including two scalograms (one covered 10 questions on the sources of experienced anxiety, and the other one was also a 10-item PSS-10 test – Perceived Stress Scale). In the analysis, Kruskal-Wallis H and Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney tests were applied. In the case of obtaining a statistically significant result of intergroup comparisons, post hoc tests were conducted in order to minimize the error resulting from unequal sample sizes. The stress index level measured by the PSS-10 test amounted to 15.71 in the entire sample, and it was significantly lower among the inhabitants of Lviv (11.94) than in Tri-City (18.07) and Kielce (17.09). When asked about concerns related to the COVID-19 epidemic, the respondents provided different answers depending on the country they lived in. Among the sources of perceived anxiety, residents of Polish cities indicated other people’s attitudes (Tri-City – 55.1%, Kielce – 58.7%) and difficulties in access to health services (64.0% – Kielce, 41.3% – Tri-City). A major source of anxiety for the inhabitants of Ukrainian Lviv, however, was the health of relatives (53.2%) and their own health (49.9%).

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“…Даний аналіз варто розглядати як попередній та такий, що ілюструє масштаб загрози від пандемії. Покращити наведені нижче результати можна з повнішим урахуванням регіональної інформації, інформації про вік[5] та стать померлих тощо.Нехай Y та M -змінні, що позначають рік та місяць відповідно. Лінійний тренд , ятирічні середні окремо для кожного місяця.…”

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Assessment of the excess mortality in Ukraine caused by COVID-19

Ivanov¹,

Brovchenko²

2022

MMS

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Demographic statistics of Ukraine and other countries of the world indicate that the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on mortality is not limited only to COVID-19 fatalities. Analysis of all-cause mortality statistics allows for examining the consequences of the pandemic regardless of the problem of determining the cause of death, which is especially relevant in the case of poor COVID-19 testing. The basic approach of such analysis includes comparing the number of deaths from all causes during the pandemic period with a forecast based on the tendencies of previous years. For the period from March 2020 to January 2022, there are considered three methods, the biggest difference between which is the interpretation of data for months when all-cause mortality is lower than expected. Other methodological issues arose while estimating the phenomenon of excess mortality in September-December 2020, whose ratio to the confirmed COVID-19 deaths was higher than on the average in 2021. It can be partially explained by the low volumes of tests in the fourth quarter of 2020. The reality of the increased excess mortality in September-December 2020 is evidenced by the fact that a similar phenomenon was observed in many neighboring countries. The conducted study shows that the excess mortality associated with the pandemic is at least 1.8–2.1 times higher than the confirmed COVID-19 deaths accord-ing to the Ministry of Health, and at least 1.6–1.9 times exceeds the similar indicator according to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The obtained estimates are consistent with similar es-timates from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME, USA, Washington state) and the World Health Organization (WHO). The found estimates should be considered as lower given that the expected mortality from all causes for 2020-2022 was not adjusted for the phe-nomenon of mortality reduction observed in the first half of 2020.

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Excess Deaths associated with the COVID-19 Pandemic in Ukraine in 2020

Cited by 5 publications

References 11 publications

Excess mortality in Ukraine during the course of COVID-19 pandemic in 2020–2021

Excess mortality in Ukraine during the course of COVID-19 pandemic in 2020–2021

Samoocena poziomu stresu mieszkańców Trójmiasta, Kielc i Lwowa podczas pandemii COVID-19

Assessment of the excess mortality in Ukraine caused by COVID-19

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