Exceptional warming over the Barents area

Isaksen, Ketil; Nordli, Øyvind; Иванов, Б. В.; Køltzow, Morten; Aaboe, Signe; Gjelten, Herdis M.; Mezghani, Abdelkader; Eastwood, Steinar; Førland, Eirik J.; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Hanssen-Bauer, Inger; Brækkan, Ragnar; Sviashchennikov, Pavel N.; Демин, В. И.; Ревина, Анастасия; Karandasheva, Tatiana

doi:10.1038/s41598-022-13568-5

Cited by 114 publications

(117 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…The most extreme AA values occur in the sea areas near Novaya Zemlya, which were locally warming up to seven times as fast as the global average. These high warming rates are consistent with recent research 44 , and evidently, the primary reason for such a high amplification ratio is the reduction of cold-season ice cover, which has been most pronounced in the Barents Sea 44,45 . Furthermore, it has been found that changes in atmospheric circulation have amplified the warming in this area 46,47 .…”

Section: Observedsupporting

confidence: 91%

The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979

Rantanen

Karpechko

Lipponen

et al. 2022

Commun Earth Environ

1,090

442

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In recent decades, the warming in the Arctic has been much faster than in the rest of the world, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. Numerous studies report that the Arctic is warming either twice, more than twice, or even three times as fast as the globe on average. Here we show, by using several observational datasets which cover the Arctic region, that during the last 43 years the Arctic has been warming nearly four times faster than the globe, which is a higher ratio than generally reported in literature. We compared the observed Arctic amplification ratio with the ratio simulated by state-of-the-art climate models, and found that the observed four-fold warming ratio over 1979–2021 is an extremely rare occasion in the climate model simulations. The observed and simulated amplification ratios are more consistent with each other if calculated over a longer period; however the comparison is obscured by observational uncertainties before 1979. Our results indicate that the recent four-fold Arctic warming ratio is either an extremely unlikely event, or the climate models systematically tend to underestimate the amplification.

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Section: Observedsupporting

confidence: 91%

The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979

Rantanen

Karpechko

Lipponen

et al. 2022

Commun Earth Environ

1,090

442

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“…However, there is considerable regional variability in the magnitude of this warming, mainly related to differences in the proximity of permafrost temperatures to 0 • C [7] and differences in climate setting. The greatest changes are observed at permafrost stations on Svalbard, which are located in a region that currently warms up until seven times faster than the global average [38].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Advances in operational permafrost monitoring on Svalbard and in Norway

Isaksen

Lutz²,

Sørensen³

et al. 2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The cryosphere web portal maintained by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway), https://cryo.met.no, provides access to the latest operational data and the current state of sea ice, snow, and permafrost in Norway, the Arctic, and the Antarctic. We present the latest addition to this portal: the operational permafrost monitoring at MET Norway and methods for visualising real-time permafrost temperature data. The latest permafrost temperatures are compared to the climatology generated from the station’s data record, including median, confidence intervals, extremes, and trends. There are additional operational weather stations with extended measurement programs at these locations. The collocated monitoring offers daily updated data for studying and monitoring the current state, trends, and the effects of, e.g. extreme climate events on permafrost temperatures. Temperature rates obtained from the long-term records in the warmer permafrost found in Norway are typically 0.1 °C to 0.2 °C per decade. In contrast, in the colder permafrost of the High Arctic on Svalbard, a warming of up to 0.7 °C per decade is apparent. The operational monitoring provides information faster than ever before, potentially assisting in the early detection of, e.g. record high active layer thickness and pronounced permafrost temperature increases. It may also become an important cornerstone of early warning systems for natural hazards associated with permafrost warming and degradation. Currently, data are submitted manually to the international Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost and are scheduled for integration with WMO operational services through the WMO Global Cryosphere Watch.

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“…Such a coordinated effort on long-term effects is required to gain a holistic understanding of future changes in the tundra biome and its possible resistance and resilience to both winter and summer warming (Bjorkman et al, 2020). This is especially urgent given that winter warming is by far outpacing summer warming (Isaksen et al, 2022b), with potentially ecosystem-wide consequences such as alteration of below-ground vegetation productivity, microorganism activity, and carbon flux exchange, and cascading effects across the food web. This pioneer long-term icing experiment sets the stage for forthcoming studies to fill this fundamental knowledge gap.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The high Arctic Svalbard (78°17’N, 16°02’E) is a region warming twice faster than the Arctic average and five-seven times faster than the global average (Isaksen et al 2022b). The experiment was located in the valley of Adventdalen and lasted for five consecutive years (January 2016–August 2020).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards rainy high Arctic winters: how ice-encasement impacts tundra plant phenology, productivity and reproduction

Moullec

Hendel

Bon

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The Arctic is the most rapidly warming region on Earth, but our understanding of ecosystem impacts is still poor. For instance, warming occurs more than twice as fast in winter than in summer, yet long-term tundra vegetation studies have almost exclusively focused on effects of the latter. In winter, more frequent extreme warm spells and associated rain-on-snow events can dramatically alter snowpack conditions and even encapsulate the vegetation in basal ice for several months. Such icing effects on plant phenology, productivity and reproduction remain largely unexplored. We performed a novel five-year-long field experiment in which we simulated every winter a rain-on-snow event resulting in ice encasement of the vegetation, and assessed vascular plant responses in each subsequent growing season. We also tested whether these responses could be modified by summer warming (open top chambers). Icing delayed the dominant shrub`s phenology, in particular early leaf development and seed maturation, increased community-level primary production in the second half of the growing season, but also reduced flower production. These delays and allocation trade-offs were associated with a delay in sub-surface soil thawing and soil warming in spring/summer, conditions known to influence plant root activity and nutrient availability at high latitudes. Interestingly, summer warming mitigated effects of icing alone and the combined treatment showed advanced phenology, increased primary production across the growing season and reduced the negative effects on reproduction. In general, effect sizes of icing were as large as those observed for experimental summer warming alone. The community-level increase in primary production following icing is in sharp contrast with the recently proposed arctic browning effect of extreme winter warm spells in evergreen shrub-dominated tundra communities. Yet, the negative effect on reproductive traits can become critical for species viability if these events become chronic. As we are heading towards a rain-dominated Arctic, our findings highlight the need for coordinated monitoring of the effects of warmer and rainier winters across tundra plant communities and growth forms across the Arctic.

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Exceptional warming over the Barents area

Cited by 114 publications

References 58 publications

The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979

The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979

Advances in operational permafrost monitoring on Svalbard and in Norway

Towards rainy high Arctic winters: how ice-encasement impacts tundra plant phenology, productivity and reproduction

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