Exceedance Analysis of PM10 Concentration in Central Indian City: Predicting Gap between Two Exceedances

Abstract

In this study the gap between the two exceedances is analyzed using time series analysis. The time series of PM 10 (particulate matter of size less than 10 micron) observed during 2005-2013 in two cities; Nagpur and Chandrapur in central India is considered. Higher PM 10 concentration is observed in Chandrapur as compared to Nagpur. Exponential relationship is observed between the average time between the two exceedances and annual average PM 10 concentration. This information along with the PM 10 concentration prediction model is utilized to predict the average number of observations between the two exceedances for the following year. k-nearest neighbor approach is used for forecasting PM 10 concentration which enabled estimating the average number of observations between two exceedances using exponential relationship. The approach can be used for estimating the average number of observations between the two exceedances over a year, which can further be utilized to make appropriate decision to control and manage high particulate matter pollution in an area.

Assessment of Fractionated Aerosols at a Semiarid Region over the Indo‐Gangetic Basin

“…December and January are the peak winter months of the region, when the wind is comparatively calm, limiting the dispersion of pollutants generated from various anthropogenic activities for heating and cooking purposes domestically or publicly. A number of studies have also reported exceedance days . Synoptic situations characterized by stagnant winds, low temperature, and strong temperature inversions in winter time may be the possible reason for the high EF during the winter season.…”

“…Unplanned growth, development, and an increase in vehicles have deteriorated the ambient air quality. Using the AQI to assess and represent the air quality status, studies have determined the air quality of some cities, such as Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Pune, Dhaka, Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Chennai, Delhi, Agra, Kanpur, Lucknow, Coimbatore, and Varanasi, and have found that the PM concentration in many cities in India has already violated the standards . Pollutants that are of major public health concern can cause serious harm to human health if they exceed the allowable limit and the PM levels in Agra are alarmingly high.…”

“…A number of studies have also reported exceedance days. [30,52,55,56] Synoptic situations characterized by stagnant winds, low temperature, and strong temperature inversions in winter time [48] may be the possible reason for the high EF during the winter season.…”