Examining the Relationship Between Snowfall and Wildfire Patterns in the Western United States

Medler, Michael J.; Montesano, P.; Robinson, David A.

doi:10.2747/0272-3646.23.4.335

Cited by 12 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Littell et al [15] concluded that snowpack melt-off was important as they found a negative relationship between winter precipitation and fire activity in the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains. However, Medler et al [20] measured areal and temporal extent of snow cover in the western US and found no relationship with area burned. Keeley and Syphard [4] found a negative correlation between spring snowpack depth and area burned in Sierra Nevada forests, but doubted there was a causal relationship since the climate variables most strongly tied to snowpack melt-off were not parameters most strongly affecting area burned.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Future Fire Regimes: Examples from California

2016

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Climate and weather have long been noted as playing key roles in wildfire activity, and global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts on natural and urban ecosystems. Predicting future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Fuel structure plays a critical role in determining which climatic parameters are most influential on fire activity, and here, by focusing on the diversity of ecosystems in California, we illustrate some principles that need to be recognized in predicting future fire regimes. Spatial scale of analysis is important in that large heterogeneous landscapes may not fully capture accurate relationships between climate and fires. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned; however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models that predict future seasonal temperature changes are needed to improve fire regime projections. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited. Moreover, because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations, fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science; it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant to some landscapes, but where climate is relevant, the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation trajectories, as well as by feedback processes of fire effects on vegetation distribution, plus policy changes in how we manage ecosystems.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Future Fire Regimes: Examples from California

2016

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“…Previous studies have addressed the relationship between early snowmelt timing and wildfire using various methods. Medler et al (2002) examined the spatial and temporal relationships between snow cover and wildfire from 1986 to 1996 in the 11 western US states. Although their research suggested an inverse relationship between early snowmelt timing and wildfire, no strong statistical correlation was found for the 11 western states as a whole for the period of interest, or when these data were aggregated by state boundaries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We were interested in identifying relationships between snowmelt timing and wildfire in forested ecoregions, therefore repeating this analysis using sensible ecological boundaries and updated datasets yielded further insight. The Medler et al (2002) study was also limited by data availability. At the time of their study, fire data were only available for 1986 to 1996.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…At the time of our study, we had validated fire data for 1984 to 2012, improving our ability to observe trends in spite of decadal climate oscillations. Finally, Medler et al (2002) used acre-weeks of snow as their snow metric, which does not specifically consider the spring timing of snowmelt. We improved upon this method by identifying a day of year (DOY) for snowmelt for each cell within our study area, providing a more direct comparison between spring snowmelt timing and wildfire occurrence.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A New Method Comparing Snowmelt Timing with Annual Area Burned

et al. 2016

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“…This is due to snowfall's generally slower rate of return to the atmosphere as water vapor and slower runoff rate than rainfall [ Cohen and Rind , 1991; Williams et al , 2009]. Not surprisingly, snow also has a large eco‐hydrological impact by affecting forest health [ Chhin et al , 2010], wildfire risk [ Medler et al , 2002] and wildlife [ Geremia et al , 2011].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

El Niño-Southern Oscillation and snow level in the western United States

Svoma

2011

J. Geophys. Res.

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The relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the elevation of snow level in the western United States is established. Snow level variability is quantified from records of (1) wet‐bulb zero heights at ten rawinsonde sites (1957–2010), (2) empirically estimated snow levels over ten adjacent watersheds from precipitation and snowfall observations (∼1924–2009), and (3) 850–700 hPa thicknesses (1948–2010). The statistical relationship between these variables and the Southern Oscillation Index is established through the examination of the change in the empirical probability density function from moderate values of the Southern Oscillation Index to extreme values of the Southern Oscillation Index. For all data sources, results suggest that El Niño events are linked to higher snow levels across much of the western United States. Considering the known effects of El Niño on airflow over the western United States, the elevated snow levels are likely due to the more maritime characteristics of midlatitude cyclones. The strength of this signal decreases with distance from the Pacific Ocean and the southern Rockies display slightly decreased snow levels during El Niño events, likely due to the transition of maritime air masses to continental air masses. A snow covered area analysis derived from the Terra MODIS observations supports this El Niño signal in snow level. There is little evidence for a significant and spatially coherent La Niña relationship with snow level. This ENSO signal in snow level is apparent in the data with trend removed and for the cold and warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

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Examining the Relationship Between Snowfall and Wildfire Patterns in the Western United States

Cited by 12 publications

References 11 publications

Climate Change and Future Fire Regimes: Examples from California

Climate Change and Future Fire Regimes: Examples from California

A New Method Comparing Snowmelt Timing with Annual Area Burned

El Niño-Southern Oscillation and snow level in the western United States

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