Examining the potential impacts of sea level rise on coastal wetlands in north-eastern NSW, Australia

Akumu, Clement E.; Pathirana, Sumith; Baban, Serwan Mj; Bucher, Daniel J

doi:10.1007/s11852-010-0114-3

Cited by 33 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…SLAMM is an open source model that can be implemented with relative ease. It has been used to investigate potential impacts of sea-level rise on coastal wetlands in a range of locations, though primarily the USA [20,21,[41][42][43][44]. Here, SLAMM was implemented to explore the role of sea-level rise on Mediterranean-Atlantic saltmarshes using the Odiel system (SW-Spain) as a case study.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Response of Mediterranean-Atlantic Saltmarshes to Sea-Level Rise

et al. 2019

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Saltmarshes provide high-value ecological services and play an important role in coastal ecosystems and populations. As the rate of sea level rise accelerates in response to climate change, saltmarshes and tidal environments and the ecosystem services that they provide could be lost in those areas that lack sediment supply for vertical accretion or space for landward migration. Predictive models could play an important role in foreseeing those impacts, and to guide the implementation of suitable management plans that increase the adaptive capacity of these valuable ecosystems. The SLAMM (sea-level affecting marshes model) has been extensively used to evaluate coastal wetland habitat response to sea-level rise. However, uncertainties in predicted response will also reflect the accuracy and quality of primary inputs such as elevation and habitat coverage. Here, we assessed the potential of SLAMM for investigating the response of Atlantic-Mediterranean saltmarshes to future sea-level rise and its application in managerial schemes. Our findings show that SLAMM is sensitive to elevation and habitat maps resolution and that historical sea-level trend and saltmarsh accretion rates are the predominant input parameters that influence uncertainty in predictions of change in saltmarsh habitats. The understanding of the past evolution of the system, as well as the contemporary situation, is crucial to providing accurate uncertainty distributions and thus to set a robust baseline for future predictions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Response of Mediterranean-Atlantic Saltmarshes to Sea-Level Rise

et al. 2019

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“…Earlier versions of SLAMM have been used in previous studies to address the potential impact of sea level rise, including for coastal wetlands of New South Wales, Australia (Akumu et al ) and the barrier island of a US Air Force base (Chu‐Agor et al ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated ecosystem services assessment: Valuation of changes due to sea level rise in Galveston Bay, Texas, USA

Yoskowitz

Carollo

Pollack

et al. 2016

Integr Environ Assess Manag

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The goal of the present study was to identify the potential changes in ecosystem service values provided by wetlands in Galveston Bay, Texas, USA, under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B max (0.69 m) sea level rise scenario. Built exclusively upon the output produced during the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model 6 (SLAMM 6) exercise for the Galveston Bay region, this study showed that fresh marsh and salt marsh present a steady decline from 2009 (initial condition) to 2100. Fresh marsh was projected to undergo the biggest changes, with the loss of approximately 21% of its extent between 2009 and 2100 under the A1B max scenario. The percentages of change for salt marsh were less prominent at approximately 12%. This trend was also shown in the values of selected ecosystem services (disturbance regulation, waste regulation, recreation, and aesthetics) provided by these habitats. An ordinary least squares regression was used to calculate the monetary value of the selected ecosystem services provided by salt marsh and fresh marsh in 2009, and in 2050 and 2100 under the A1B max scenario. The value of the selected services showed potential monetary losses in excess of US$40 million annually in 2100, compared to 2009 for fresh marsh and more than $11 million for salt marsh. The estimates provided here are only small portions of what can be lost due to the decrease in habitat extent, and they highlight the need for protecting not only built infrastructure but also natural resources from sea level rise. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:431-443. © 2016 SETAC.

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“…Landscape-scale projections of mangrove-saltmarsh distribution based on empirical data that incorporate feedbacks between hydroperiod, mineral and organic matter additions, and sea-level rise have been developed using readily available models such as the 'sea level affecting marshes model' (Akumu et al 2011;Traill et al 2011;Runting et al 2016;Mogensen and Rogers 2018) or empirically driven numerical models (Oliver et al 2012;Rogers et al 2012Rogers et al , 2013Mogensen and Rogers 2018). Both modelling approaches extrapolate elevation and distance dependent relationships between surface elevation gain and sea-level rise.…”

Section: Australiamentioning

confidence: 99%

Moving from Generalisations to Specificity about Mangrove –Saltmarsh Dynamics

Rogers

Krauss

2018

Wetlands

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Spatial and temporal variability in factors influencing mangrove establishment and survival affects the distribution of mangrove, particularly near their latitudinal limit, where mangrove expansion into saltmarsh is conspicuous. In this paper the spatial variability in mangrove distribution and variability in factors influencing mangrove establishment and survival during the Quaternary period are reviewed, focussing on research at latitudinal limits in Australia and mainland USA. Despite similarities in the response of mangrove to some drivers, the expression of these drivers is both spatially and temporally variable, demonstrating the need for analyses of mangrove-saltmarsh dynamics to move beyond generalisations and incorporate regional and local-scale specificity. We propose i) that precursory recognition that 'correlation does not mean causation' is inadequate and assumptions, caveats, and limitations should be clearly articulated in correlative studies; ii) experimental design in manipulative experiments must also articulate the spatial and temporal scale to which the analysis is relevant; and iii) analyses that draw from a range of methods will provide greater confidence. Integrated research programs that transect spatial and temporal scales and incorporate a range of techniques are essential to improve projections. Mangrove-saltmarsh distribution research should move beyond simple models that assume equilibrium between realised and fundamental niches.

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Examining the potential impacts of sea level rise on coastal wetlands in north-eastern NSW, Australia

Cited by 33 publications

References 16 publications

Evaluating the Response of Mediterranean-Atlantic Saltmarshes to Sea-Level Rise

Evaluating the Response of Mediterranean-Atlantic Saltmarshes to Sea-Level Rise

Integrated ecosystem services assessment: Valuation of changes due to sea level rise in Galveston Bay, Texas, USA

Moving from Generalisations to Specificity about Mangrove –Saltmarsh Dynamics

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