Examining the Local Spatial Variability of Robberies in Saint Louis Using a Multi-Scale Methodology

Abstract

The current study spatially examines the local variability of robbery rates in the City of Saint Louis, Missouri using both census tract and block group data disaggregated and standardized to the 250- and 500-m raster grid spatial scale. The Spatial Lag Model (SLM) indicated measures of race and stability as globally influencing robbery rates. To explore these relationships further, Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) was used to determine the local spatial variability. We found that the standardized census tract data appeared to be more powerful in the models, while standardized block group data were more precise. Similarly, the 250-m grid offered greater accuracy, while the 500-m grid was more robust. The GWR models explained the local varying spatial relationships between race and stability and robbery rates in St. Louis better than the global models. The local models indicated that social characteristics occurring at higher-order geographies may influence robbery rates in St. Louis.

Comparing forms of neighborhood instability as predictors of violence in Richmond, VA

“…Other work using GWR indicates that food insecurity is a strong predictor of gun violence [36]. Research reveals that cities historically affected by racist 'redlining' housing practices demonstrate spatial heterogeneity in statistical models predicting forms of antisocial behavior due to the protracted effects of the discriminatory policies used to shape the demographics of affected neighborhoods [37][38][39].…”

Comparing Forms of Neighborhood Instability as Predictors of Violence in Richmond, VA

“…Other work using GWR indicates that food insecurity is a strong predictor of gun violence (Smith et al, 2020). Research reveals that cities historically affected by racist 'redlining' housing practices demonstrate spatial heterogeneity in statistical models predicting forms of antisocial behavior due to the protracted effects of the discriminatory policies used to shape the demographics of affected neighborhoods (e.g., Barrett, 2017;Sadler & Lafreniere, 2017;Smith & Sandoval, 2019).…”

Finding the city in sociology: Broadening and deepening the geographic scope of the urban and inequality literatures

“…Though media reporting of crime rates in St. Louis has been both pseudo‐scientific and sensationalistic (Sandoval, ), recent years have seen homicide rates in the city that have eclipsed both Baltimore and Detroit, two other cities with national reputations for violent crime. The concentration of violence in the city and region has been assessed by researchers using increasingly sophisticated spatial statistical methods (Messner et al, ; Smith & Sandoval, , ). Like crime, immigration is also an increasingly fruitful area of sociological research (Sandoval, ), particularly around both growing Latino communities and a substantial resettlement of Bosnians in the city and later the county following civil war in the former Yugoslavia (Cheah, Karamehic‐Muratovic, & Matsuo, ; Cheah, Karamehic‐Muratovic, Matsuo, & Poljarevic, ; Hume, ).…”