Examining the impact of fatalism belief and optimism orientation on seismic preparedness: Considering their roles in the nexus between risk perception and preparedness

Abstract

Despite the numerous studies focused on the sociopsychological factors involved in seismic preparedness, we have limited knowledge of the impact pathways from fatalism belief and optimism orientation to preparedness. This study proposed a theoretical model to examine the intertwined relationships among fatalism belief, optimism orientation, and risk perception regarding public seismic preparedness based on a survey in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in China. The results indicate that fatalism belief can directly reduce an individual's seismic preparedness intention. In addition, such beliefs negatively moderate the positive relationship between the probability perception of earthquakes and skill preparedness. Moreover, optimism orientation has dual effects. On the one hand, it directly enhances the public's intention to prepare. On the other hand, it makes people underestimate their perceptions of the consequences of earthquakes, which indirectly reduces their willingness to materially prepare. Furthermore, we found that fatalism belief can negatively moderate the positive relationship between optimism orientation and material preparedness. These findings contribute to safety education for earthquake disaster risk reduction (EDRR) strategies, especially those used where fatalist culture is prevalent.

Unpacking immediate public behavioral responses to earthquakes: A study focusing on the role of fatalism and fear

“…Previous studies have indicated that fatalism takes various forms in different cultural contexts (Maercker et al, 2019; Sun et al, 2018); thus, context-specific measurement of fatalistic disaster beliefs should be adopted according to the actual local context. We find that there is a proverb widely shared in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region of China, called “ Xiao zhen bu yong pao, da zhen pao bu liao ” (Liu and Sun, 2022; Sun et al, 2022). This proverb implies that there is nothing that one needs to do or can do to protect oneself from earthquakes.…”

“…In extant studies dealing with seismic behavior, fatalism has been found to be pervasive in earthquake-related thinking (Baytiyeh and Naja, 2014;Joffe et al, 2013Joffe et al, , 2019McClure et al, 2007;Solberg et al, 2010;Yari et al, 2019). Similarly, previous studies have reported that a kind of fatalistic seismic belief that encourages taking no action in the face of an earthquake was endorsed by some local residents in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area (Liu and Sun, 2022;Sun et al, 2022). Sun et al (2022) further indicated that previous earthquake experience and a general fatalistic orientation partly account for the formation of the fatalistic seismic belief of some people in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area.…”

“…It should be mentioned that not only immediate public behavioral responses but also behavioral variables such as preparedness and rumor sharing were investigated. Other studies with different research questions based on this investigation have been either published (Liu and Sun, 2022) or are under peer review elsewhere.…”

“…Earthquake experience was measured through a self-reported question. Respondents were asked to answer how many times they had experienced or felt earthquakes (Liu and Sun, 2022;Sun and Xue, 2020). The response options were ''none,'' ''one time,'' ''two times,'' ''three times,'' ''four times,'' ''five times,'' or ''five or more times,'' which were coded as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7, respectively.…”

“…It has been argued that earthquake fatalism may contribute to the public’s behavioral choice to threats of earthquake (Turner, 1983). Studies on seismic preparedness have indicated that fatalistic seismic belief negatively affects earthquake preparedness (Baytiyeh and Naja, 2014; Liu and Sun, 2022; McClure et al, 2001; Yari et al, 2019). The basic logic is that fatalism makes people believe that they cannot take any action to reduce the adverse effects of disasters and then reduces their intention to take action (Baytiyeh and Naja, 2014; Liu and Sun, 2022).…”