Examining the Effect of Automatic Promotion on Students’ Learning Achievements in Uganda’s Primary Education

Abstract

This study employed a difference-in-differences analysis technique to estimate the average treatment effect of automatic promotion on students' cognitive learning outcomes in Uganda's primary education. Regression results indicate a positive policy effect on learning achievements in literacy and numeracy at primary three (P3) and primary six (P6). Specifically, the implementation of automatic promotion policy has translated in to an increase in learning outcomes in reading and mathematics at P3 and P6, all statistically significant at conventional levels. Decomposing the effect along gender and school location (rural or urban) dimensions reveals positive and statistically significant effect on literacy and numeracy in both grades. The effect on students' scores in rural areas is higher than that on students' in urban schools. In terms of gender, the effect is relatively similar for female students and their male counterparts. These results are contrary to the popular belief among many Ugandans, but consistent with earlier scholarly works that have attributed automatic promotion with positive impact on learning outcomes.

Automatic Promotion and Student Dropout: Evidence from Uganda, Using Propensity Score in Difference in Differences Model

“…AP was implemented as part of broader national education strategy aimed at enhancing internal efficiency under basic education. This is because by 2004 grade retention and dropout were recorded at approximately 35% and 21% respectively (see Okurut, 2015). Moreover, there were differences in inefficiency levels, along school location (rural or urban) and gender.…”

“…The outcome variable, student dropout is a dichotomous variable (1 or 0) denoted by Y, so that Y=1 if dropout was reported at each of the two grades under focus (Primary 3 & Primary 6), at the time of data collection and Y=0 otherwise. The outcome variable is observed over two time periods (T=1,0) where T=1 indicates a time period after the treated group received treatment and T=0 indicates a time period before the treated group received treatment (Okurut, 2015).…”

“…(ii) what is the effect of AP practice on male and female students dropping out of primary schooling? These research questions shade light on the effectiveness of the AP policy, given that it was adopted to ensure that both male and female students stay in school, whether in rural or urban settings (Okurut, 2015). The rest of this paper is structured as follows: a review of previous studies, the methodology of the study, results and discussion, limitation of the study and policy implications.…”

“…Both sides have actively used print and electronic media to express their arguments for or against AP, with neither side providing any evidence (see also Okurut, 2015).…”

“…Okurut (2015) examined the impact of AP on students' learning achievements, but did not assess its impact on student dropout. Given the lack of evidence from either side, there is an information gap in the context of Uganda regarding the impact of AP on the rate at which students are dropping out of primary schooling, which this study sought to fill.…”