Examining change in complex social-ecological systems using multiple long-term records: the New Forest – a case study

Abstract

Social-ecological systems (SES) are complex, dynamic systems with strong interdependencies between their ecological components and the social actors that depend upon and shape them. They are characterised by resilience, multiple stable states and adaptive capacity. These characteristics vary across space and time as does the supply of the ecosystem services (ES) they provide.Whilst such systems and their characteristics are well documented from a conceptual and theoretical standpoint, the quantitative examination of socialecological interdependencies and their impacts on system dynamics has been less extensive. Furthermore, studies of historical ES delivery are rare, as most provide a 'snapshot in time' of present-day ES provision. Thus, little information exists on the impact of past cultural and natural influences on service delivery.We use an 'evolutionary' approach to explore system change and ES delivery in the New Forest, a SES with a millennia-long history of human-environment interaction. This method uses palaeo-ecological records, documentary evidence, direct observations and land-cover time series to examine system dynamics and ES provision across space and time to better comprehend contemporary processes and dynamics.Using this approach, we aim to answer the question: 'Can the New Forest SES support multiple and potentially conflicting uses whilst remaining resilient to (undesirable) environmental and societal changes?' Preliminary results indicate that actions aimed at enhancing the supply of one or more services often affect the delivery of others as well as system resilience.

River channel changes through time and across space: Using three commonly available information sources to support river understanding and management in a national park

“…Extreme natural events (droughts and windstorms) have affected the condition of the forested areas, particularly the beech stands ( Fagus sylvatica ; Grant & Edwards, 2008). Pogue (2015) and Pogue et al (2015) describe the adverse impacts of severe drought, storm events and changes in grazing pressure on tree health, wind throw and woodland regeneration. Severe drought periods have also been associated with increased damage from fires.…”

“…Figure2bfocuses on decadal periods of significant change since 1800 that have the potential to influence the hydrogeomorphology of New Forest catchment, floodplain, riparian and stream channel environments, including extreme natural events, broad land cover responses and pressures, and important Acts of Parliament, plans and measures.Extreme natural events (droughts and windstorms) have affected the condition of the forested areas, particularly the beech stands (Fagus sylvatica;Grant & Edwards, 2008) Pogue (2015). andPogue et al (2015) describe the adverse impacts of severe drought, storm events and changes in grazing pressure on tree health, wind throw and woodland regeneration. Severe drought periods have also been associated with increased damage from fires.…”

Socio-Economic Impact Mechanism of Ecosystem Services Value, a PCA-GWR Approach

“…Quantitative research often used traditional statistical analysis, RDA (redundancy analysis) [24], LMDI (logarithmic mean divisiona Index) [25] and other methods, which are essentially global methods. Social-ecological systems are complex, dynamic systems with strong interdependencies between their ecological components and the social actors that depend upon and shape them [26]. Therefore, the multi-collinearity between socialeconomic factors need to be considered.…”